Battle for the Bigger Half

Reagan challenges Carter's lead among women

It was Ronald Reagan's first press conference in a month, and his advisers were delighted at the results. The Republican not only cleanly fielded reporters' questions in Los Angeles, he made a headline-grabbing announcement. If elected, he said, "one of the first Supreme Court vacancies in my Administration will be filled by the most qualified woman I can find." With that, Reagan hoped to cut into President Jimmy Carter's current lead among women voters.

Apparently anticipating criticism from women with different viewpoints that this was a late-campaign gesture, Reagan said, "I oppose tokenism, and I oppose setting false quotas. We need the best people possible at the highest levels of government regardless of sex, race or religion. I am also acutely aware, however, that within the guidelines of excellence, appointments can carry enormous symbolic significance." But, asked a reporter, "why make the announcement now?" Replied Reagan: "You can't do everything in the first week of the campaign."

Be that as it may, the Reagan strategists are concerned about reaching women voters on several counts. Polls show that more women support the President than the Republican, particularly in some of the big battleground states. There are more women than men in the group of undecided voters whose allegiance on Election Day may be crucial. And there are more potential women voters than men voters in the U.S. population (about 52%). Women tend to turn out to vote in the same ratio as men and their numbers could prove decisive in a close election, as this one is expected to be. Thus the battle for the bigger half is deadly serious.

The Carter lead among women apparently has been shrinking, and some Reagan aides predict that it will virtually disappear by Election Day. Nationwide it was as high as 10% in August, according to a Yankelovich, Skelly and White survey for TIME. More recently, both Gallup and Harris polls showed Carter only 2% ahead among women. The percentage of women who say they are undecided has also been dropping, to only 5% this month, but it is still slightly higher than the percentage of undecided among men.

Some of the state breakdowns on the current leanings by sex are much sharper --and explain Reagan's need to improve his appeal to women. New York Times-CBS News polls rate Reagan well ahead of Carter among men in Illinois (41% to 30%), but trailing among women (27% to 36%); 26% of the women are undecided. The difference is similar in Texas (Reagan leads 45% to 38% among men, but trails 33% to 42% among women, and 20% of the women are undecided) and Pennsylvania (Reagan leads 39% to 31% among men, trails 30% to 32% among women, with 26% of women undecided). Polling in eight key states by the Washington Post showed that Reagan led 39% to 34% among men, but was behind 38% to 31% among women. Atlanta Pollster Claibourne Darden found even greater differences in eight Southern states, where Carter gets 47.5% support among women, but only 35.1% among men.

Why this distinction between the sexes? Strategists in both the Reagan and Carter camps agree on the major factor: women are more sensitive than men to issues that involve war and peace and, unfairly or not, Reagan is perceived by many women as more likely than Carter to pursue policies that risk war. Contends Marquette University Sociologist Wayne Youngquist: "Men may say to themselves, 'We need a strong defense. We're tired of being pushed around.' But women are saying to themselves, 'No one is dying, so let's keep it that way.' " Contends Ohio Republican Robert Hughes, a party leader in Cleveland: "It is always the mother who worries most about the son."

The Carter and Reagan analysts detect two other trends among women voters: they are more likely to make up their minds later than men and to stay with an incumbent. This so worried Carter's advisers in 1976 that Pollster Patrick Caddell warned in a late-campaign memo that women were staying with President Gerald Ford in numbers great enough to defeat Carter. As the challenger, Carter then made a pitch for the women's vote and wound up losing it to Ford by only 51% to 48%. Some 4.5 million more women than men voted in that election.

The analysts agree that Reagan is also hurt among women by his failure to support their right to abortions and the Equal Rights Amendment. The National Organization for Women, which has 125,000 members, organized picketing for most of Reagan's public appearances this month. Still, the same group has not endorsed Carter--a way of punishing him for not pushing hard enough to win ratification of the ERA by even one state legislature since he took office, and for his stand on abortions for the poor. Few women, however, are expected to vote for Carter or Reagan solely because of single issues like abortion or ERA. Insists a Republican feminist in Ohio: "Only the most diehard women are going to vote for or against Reagan on ERA when other, more important things are at stake. War is the issue."

Nor do many leaders of women's groups or opinion experts expect Reagan's promise to elevate a woman to the Supreme Court to have much impact on the female vote. Says Gregory Martire, a Yankelovich vice president: "I'd be surprised if it helped, though it may soothe the women who were going to vote for him anyway." Contends a Republican national committeewoman in New England: "Announcing a future move is not enough to wipe out the mistrust and dismay many women felt after the Republican Convention." In any event, Carter, who has named 41 women to federal judgeships, has not made the same promise. But Atlanta Lawyer Griffin Bell, his former Attorney General and still an influential adviser, has named one of Carter's most likely candidates for the highest court. She is Amalya Kearse, 43, a U.S. Court of Appeals judge in New York City. She is also black. Making promises about future appointees is obviously a game that any presidential candidate could play.

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