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Forlani launches a Cabinet

The sprawling Fiat automobile plant in Turin hummed with activity last week after the end of a five-week strike in protest against 14,000 layoffs. Fiat's unions accepted a compromise settlement that called for government compensation to the laid-off workers and a pledge by the company to rehire any who might still be out of jobs in 1983. Brushing off a lone leftist hawking protest leaflets at the gate, a young worker exclaimed: "Soon we'll be getting a pay packet again!"

For many Italians, the harmonious mood at the auto plant was the first accomplishment of their country's new government, and a possible harbinger of its durability. The Fiat dispute had contributed to the defeat of the outgoing Cabinet led by Prime Minister Francesco Cossiga, which collapsed in September after losing a secret-ballot vote on its economic program. Everyone knew that the strike settlement was related to a four-party political deal that had spawned a new government headed by Christian Democratic Prime Minister Arnaldo Forlani. Last week, drawing a comfortable majority of 52 in a parliamentary vote of confidence, Forlani was formally installed as head of Italy's 40th postwar Cabinet.

Like its predecessor, the new government is a carefully crafted, center-left coalition, with 27 Cabinet posts distributed according to a classic division of spoils: 14 for the dominant Christian Democrats (who won 38% of the vote in last year's election), seven for the Socialists (10%), and three each for the Social Democrats (4%) and Republicans (3%). Like Cossiga, Forlani, 54, is an affable, middle-of-the-road veteran of Rome's political wars, whose previous post was president of the Christian Democratic Party.

Why then was Forlani being given a somewhat better chance of survival? For one thing, he appeared to have a broader base of support within his own party, having assigned three Cabinet seats to its mutinous left wing; some of its members had been suspected of having helped bring down Cossiga by voting against the government in the secret ballot. For another, Forlani had a strongly reinforced Socialist Party behind him, thanks to the aggressive leadership of its burly party secretary, Bettino Craxi, 46. Three weeks ago, Craxi unexpectedly announced an alliance with the Social Democrats and brought them into the coalition as an additional, fourth partner. Finally, in exchange for policy concessions on labor and the economy, Forlani may have secured the prospect of a comparatively benign opposition from the powerful Communists (30% of the vote), who were unremittingly hostile to Cossiga.

Nonetheless, Forlani clearly faces tough times. Italy's inflation is running at 22%, unemployment stands at 7.6%, and the trade deficit is expected to be ten times as large as last year's. Despite his promising start, the intractable problems of a deteriorating economy could yet send the smiling new Prime Minister the way of his 39 postwar predecessors. sb

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