Accentuating the Positive

Reagan's win has world leaders looking on the bright side

Last week's cover of the Italian weekly Panorama featured a drawing of America's President-elect wearing a cowboy suit and brandishing a six-shooter. The caption alluded without subtlety to his career in Hollywood: "Ronald Reagan in Il Presidente." During the months before the election, many leaders around the world, including friends of the U.S. as well as its enemies, held the same scathing view of Reagan as being as flashy and light as Hollywood tinsel. But now that he has been elected, some are taking a second and much more hopeful look at him as President. Said the conservative West German newspaper Die Welt: "Confronted with political reality, President Reagan might show more flexibility than he did as a candidate."

Although Western Europe worries about the future of the SALT II treaty, which it considers the cornerstone of detente, the NATO nations believe that Reagan will engineer a steadier and more forceful foreign policy than Carter. The West Germans are encouraged by the fact that Reagan's advisers include George Shultz, Henry Kissinger and Alexander Haig, all men they admire. West German Chancellor Helmut Schmidt never tried to hide his scorn for Carter's vacillating and moralizing approach to international issues. Says one Schmidt aide: "Thank God the days of the Washington zigzag are over."

French President Valery Giscard d'Estaing, who also had his doubts about Carter's steadiness, expects a Reagan Administration to reassert U.S. power. After meeting with Schmidt last week, Giscard said: "France can only rejoice at the sight of a strong America determined fully to assume its responsibilities."

Of all Western Europe's leaders, Britain's Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher had the most sympathy for Carter. Her government admires Reagan's call for a strong defense and a tough attitude toward the Soviet Union.*

The main fear that Europeans have about Reagan is that he will try to push them to meet their commitment to increase defense spending by 3% annually at a time when they are having economic problems. The West Germans have already decided not to meet the figure, which was agreed upon at the 1978 NATO summit.

The potential for a conflict between the new Administration and Europe certainly exists. Speaking before a meeting of Defense Ministers in Brussels last week, a senior British diplomat said, "Reagan must understand Washington can no longer order Europeans around." He had in mind such matters as defense spending.

Other matters concerned other nations. To Arab countries, Reagan rhymes with Begin. In general, they consider his election a blow to the Middle East peace process because of his support of Jewish settlements on the West Bank and his strong condemnation of the P.L.O. Says one Jordanian diplomat: "A pillar of the Camp David agreement has fallen." In a televised speech, Egyptian President Anwar Sadat heaped praise on Carter after his defeat and mentioned Reagan only briefly. Sadat's big fear is that Reagan will see Israel, rather than Egypt, as the chief U.S. Middle East ally. On the other hand, Sadat hopes that Reagan, with his strong anti-Soviet stance, will be willing to do what Carter could not be prodded into: building up Middle East military might against possible Soviet threats.

Although Reagan's campaign rhetoric encouraged Israel, Prime Minister Menachem Begin wanted Carter to win on the "devil you know" theory. After the election, Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir said frankly, "We are not happy about President Carter's defeat." The Israelis anticipate with no concern that Reagan's advent will slow down the talks on Palestinian autonomy; the Begin government is in no mood to hurry the process. What does please the Israelis about Reagan is his get-tough stance toward the Soviets.

Before the election, the Kremlin was pulling for Carter because Soviet leaders did not consider him a reactionary as they did Reagan. Indeed, Moscow television referred to Reagan in 1976 as "a henchman of the extreme right-wing circles in America." But now that Reagan has won, the Kremlin, which has also been buffeted by Carter's inconsistencies in policy, has changed its line, hoping that Reagan will move toward the center, and is optimistically recalling the case of Richard Nixon, the fervent anti-Communist who advanced detente. The Soviets are most concerned that Reagan's lack of experience could increase the danger of a sudden international crisis.

China is naturally apprehensive about a President-elect with a professed attachment to Taiwan, and Japan frets that Reagan may impose harsher import regulations and pressure the Japanese to spend more on defense. Also, Third World countries, particularly black Africa, fear that Reagan will slash economic assistance. But South Africa hailed Reagan's election, assuming he will relax the Carter-created campaign for human rights. Says one Pretorian diplomat: "Anybody is better than Carter, that liberal Don Quixote." Adds Roberto Campos, Brazil's Ambassador to London: "The Reagan Administration will set aside that missionary human rights policy." And in the Philippines, President Ferdinand Marcos threw a big party in his palace after Reagan's victory. Reason: with human rights likely to be less of a U.S. cause, he hopes to receive long-requested military assistance.

* Reagan got recognition last week from the British in another and distinctive way. DeBrett's, famed for tracing the lineages of the mighty, announced that the President-elect is a descendant of Riagan, an 11th century Irish prince who was a nephew of the great Irish warrior King Brian Boru (926-1014).

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