"Bitter" Times

Calvo-Sotelo 's gloomy message

Tthe Prime Minister-designate, a tall and dour man, had little cheer to offer his fellow politicians. Spain's young democracy was entering a perilous new era, he warned. Spaniards were disenchanted and pessimistic, the economic situation was "bitter and hard." In those gloomy terms, Leopoldo Calvo-Sotelo, 54, last week went before the Cortes to seek approval for a new minority government.His 75-minute speech contained no bold departures, no ringing calls to greatness. Instead, it was a gingerly tiptoe around the thorny issues--divorce, Basque nationalism, party infighting--that had discouraged his predecessor, Adolfo Suarez, 48, and finally led him to resign. At week's end Calvo-Sotelo lost a first confidence vote but was expected to win on a second try, which Cortes rules allow.

It was a prudent but far from memorable beginning for Calvo-Sotelo. A successful engineer-businessman from one of Spain's most prominent political families --the assassination of an uncle in 1936 helped spark the Spanish Civil War--he was most recently Suarez's deputy prime minister for the economy. When Suarez suddenly stepped down last month, Calvo-Sotelo inherited the mandate--and with it a ruling party, the Union of the Democratic Center, that is divided on most major political issues. Moreover, even a united U.C.D. could muster only 165 votes in the 350-seat Cortes, eleven short of a majority. To escape governing with a minority, Calvo-Sotelo needed the support of several small regional groups in the Cortes, above all the Basque Nationalist Party.

At first the party seemed willing to cooperate. King Juan Carlos had visited the Basque area early this month, and moderate Basques had been outraged at the murder of a nuclear engineer by members of E.T.A., the Basque separatist organization. Then a fortnight ago, a suspected E.T.A. terrorist named Jose Arregui died in police custody in Madrid. An autopsy showed evidence of torture. The scandal forced the arrests or resignations of several police officials, brought tens of thousands of angry Basques into the streets --and all but ended E.T.A.'s growing isolation among Basque moderates. Under the circumstances, the Basque Nationalist Party informed Calvo-Sotelo, there could be no possibility of open support for the new government. The Basque troubles were further aggravated at week's end when suspected E.T.A. gunmen kidnaped the consuls of Austria, El Salvador and Uruguay from their homes in Pamplona and Bilbao.

Given the tense atmosphere, it was no surprise that Calvo-Sotelo carefully skirted the big issues in his Cortes speech. He pledged that his government would "guarantee the rights of people held in detention," but gave no indication of what he planned to do about the Arregui case. He spoke of the need for sacrifice and austerity in dealing with Spain's economic problems, but for the most part merely hinted at possible cutbacks to come.

The Prime Minister-designate also reaffirmed Spain's commitment to membership in the European Community but soft-pedaled the controversial question of joining NATO. His caution was understandable on that score. Suarez's unbridled eagerness to move Spain into NATO had not only met fierce opposition from the Communists and Socialists, it had caused grumbling within the ranks of his own divided party. Seeking to defer action on NATO membership, Calvo-Sotelo proposed further consultations on the question by parliamentary committees. He altogether omitted another highly sensitive subject: a pending divorce bill, initially approved by Suarez, that threatened to alienate the Roman Catholic hierarchy from the U.C.D. and split the party.

What Calvo-Sotelo did pledge was to remain in office until the next elections, scheduled for 1983, but few took the possibility seriously. With so little parliamentary support, the new government could easily stumble over the first serious issue it tackles; elections seem all but inevitable later this year. The intervening months could give the U.C.D. time to resolve its differences. Failing that, it faces possible defeat at the hands of Spain's second biggest party, the Socialists. As Socialist Leader Felipe Gonzalez told party colleagues last week: "The election campaign has begun."

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