A Tough Brawl to the Finish

By Patricia Blake

Giscard and Mitterrand square off for the second round

As the contest for the French presidency approached its critical second round, the nation's two veteran political challengers pitched into what promised to be a bruising, strictly two-way brawl to the finish. Center-Right Candidate Valery Giscard d'Estaing was the first to drop his customary Olympian hauteur. In a series of campaign rallies last week, France's incumbent President denounced Socialist Contender Francois Mitterrand as a captive of the Communists. "From now on," Giscard told his supporters in Dole, "whether he wants to or not, whether he knows it yet or not, Monsieur Mitterrand is also speaking on behalf of the Communists." Warming to this theme at a rally in Dijon, Giscard declared that "if Mitterrand is elected, it will be Commu nist order or Socialist disorder."

Mitterrand was quick to retaliate. Accusing Giscard of "verbal violence," the Socialist leader turned a campaign appearance in Nevers into a fuming Marxist defense. "Don't insult [leftist voters] who want to live in freedom from the anguish of unemployment!" he challenged, addressing Giscard. Preying on the President's upper-class background and aristocratic style, Mitterrand went on: "I remind Monsieur Giscard d'Estaing that the people conquered freedom almost two centuries ago against the old feudal or der, and against the feudalism of money, and that the people are fighting for free dom today against the narrow, selfish caste personified by Giscard."

Giscard's scare tactics and Mitterrand's bombast were designed to affect French voters decisively when they go to the polls May 10 for the second round of balloting. But because of the peculiarity of the French electoral system, the final outcome depends not only on the win ners but also on the losers of the first-round vote. Though Giscard and Mitterrand captured the greatest number of ballots in the first vote, thus eliminating the eight other candidates for the presidency, two of the los ers, Neo-Gaullist Leader Jacques Chirac and Communist Party Chief Georges Marchais, still command a formidable electoral following. The final choice of their supporters may tip the scales in next week's runoff.

Giscard emerged on top from the first round, but in a particularly vulnerable position. His lead was a dispiriting 28.3% of the vote, compared with his 32.6% first-round score in the 1974 presidential elections. Even then he had, barely managed to beat Mitterrand by 1.6% in the runoff. This time Mitterrand appeared to have made impressive new gains. Indeed, with 25.8% of the first-round ballots, he had captured more French voters than any Socialist since the end of World War II.

Clearly, Giscard's chances of prevailing in the runoff are marginal without the un divided support of Chirac's neo-Gaullists, who polled a hefty 18% in the first round.

Afterward, however, Chirac offered only lukewarm support to Giscard.

Though he declared that he would personally vote for the President, Chirac refused to lead his 5.2 million neo-Gaullist supporters into a stampede for Giscard.

Instead he merely advised them to vote "according to their conscience." An agitated meeting of his party's Central Committee broke up without any accord on how to instruct its rank and file. Some party leaders, including former Foreign Minister Maurice Couve de Murville, argued vigorously in favor of Giscard, but a surprising number expressed a preference either for Mitterrand or for not voting at all. Resentment ran high about Giscard's attempts to eliminate neo-Gaullists from power during his seven years as President.

Predicted Pollster Jerome Jaffre: "Most Chirac supporters will remain loyal to the center-right, but as many as one out of four may not." If Jaffre is right, more than a million neo-Gaullists voting against Giscard or abstaining in the second round could rob the President of reelection.

In contrast, Mitterrand's position appeared to be reinforced by the Communist Party's decision to throw its 4.5 million supporters his way. That move was evidently prompted by the stunning Communist losses in the first round. The party dropped from 20.6% to 15.3% of the vote--its worst performance since 1936.

Shocked by the defections, party leaders set out to lure back workers who had apparently recoiled from the way the Communists had torpedoed Mitterrand's 1978 attempt at a Socialist-Communist alliance. Even in this election, Marchais had appeared to direct the Communists' first-round campaign as much against Mitterrand--as "an obstacle to change"--as against Giscard. According to some analysts, the Communists are now supporting Mitterrand in the hope of ultimately sinking him.

Whatever the reasons behind the Communists' maneuver, their formal support may prove crucial to Mitterrand in what promises to be one of the closest elections in French history. Though Marchais has continued to demand that Mitterrand accept Communist ministers in his prospective Socialist government, Mitterrand has cannily sidestepped the issue to avoid alarming moderate voters. Ridiculing Mitterrand's ambiguous stance last week, Giscard asked, "Why doesn't he answer Marchais directly when the latter asks for his share of government ministers? The reason: Mitterrand wants the votes of Communists and anti-Communists at the same time:" Giscard's rather derisive conclusion: "Mitterrand is seeking an impossible alliance between water and fire." That dampening prospect may yet suffice to turn France's voters away from Mitterrand in the final count.

--By Patricia Blake. Reported by Henry Muller/Paris

With reporting by Henry Muller

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