After Torrijos

The power struggle begins

Led by a riderless stallion, the orange fire truck rolled slowly toward the cemetery in Panama City last week, bearing a flag-draped coffin that was topped by a distinctive canteen, bush hat and gun holster. At the grave, a 21-cannon salute boomed as the coffin was lowered amid a torrent of flowers. Thus did Panama bid farewell to its strongman, Omar Torrijos Herrera, who was killed when his plane crashed four days earlier.

But for hundreds of thousands of Panamanians, who poured into the streets to mourn their lost leader, the funeral also marked the beginning of an ominous power vacuum after 13 years of relative stability under Torrijos, who ruled the country as head of the powerful National Guard. Said Panama's Archbishop Marcos McGrath: "It puts us at a suspenseful point in the social and political history of our fatherland, and in some degree for Central America and the Third World."

Torrijos left behind one of the most stable countries in troubled Central America. The economy was healthy, thanks largely to its canal revenues and free trade zone. In 1977 Torrijos scored his most notable triumph when he renegotiated the Panama Canal treaties with the U.S. to give his country full control over the 51-mile waterway by the year 2000.

In 1978, after handpicking Aristides Royo, 41, to be a figurehead President, Torrijos started planning for national elections in 1984. But Royo, a former Education Minister, is regarded as too leftist by the general staff of the 10,000-member National Guard, which holds real power in the country. A month ago, some colonels asked Torrijos to depose Royo, but the strongman stuck by his protege. With Torrijos gone, the Guard may turn to Royo's Vice President, Ricardo de la Espriella, a prominent banker.

Ultimately, Panama's new leader is expected to be decided by a power struggle in the National Guard hierarchy. General Florencia Florez, 47, a diligent, soft-spoken career officer who succeeded Torrijos as commander, artfully tried to bolster his position at the funeral when he called for the canteen that was riding on Torrijos' coffin and, his hand shaking slightly, drank from it. Said he into the microphone: "Let the drink inspire me."

Florez faces some strong rivals, including Lieut. Colonel Ruben Dario Paredes, the deputy chief of staff and a moderate who once served as Torrijos' Agriculture Minister. Another potential rival for Florez: Lieut. Colonel Roberto Diaz Herrera, Torrijos' cousin, who is considered to be a liberal.

The eventual ruler will confront difficult problems. Fully one-third of the country's population of 1.9 million is composed of primary schoolchildren, who may face a shrinking job market in the years ahead. With farming depressed, people are crowding into cities, exacerbating social tensions.

And always in the background is the issue of the Panama Canal treaties with the U.S. Right now the sharing of power is working well. Says Thomas O. Enders, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State: "Those treaties are settled. We have a good strong operating relationship with Panama."But some Panama officials fear that, with Torrijos gone, radicals will try to reawaken strong nationalist feelings about the canal.

Warns Fernando Manfredo Jr., a Panamanian who is deputy director of the Canal Commission: "One thing the U.S.

has to do in the future is move fast when there is any complaint of an alleged violation. If they allow bureaucratic delays, we are in for trouble. People here are watching the canal very carefully."

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