From Shoo-in to Scapegoat

By WILLIAM A. HENRY III

Jerry Brown's political fortunes are stung by the pesky Medfly

"We're going to get that little bug before that little bug gets my poll ratings down any further." So vowed California's embattled Jerry Brown last week about the Mediterranean fruit fly, a pest that has pushed Brown's approval rating to its second lowest level in his nearly seven years as Governor.* California Pollster Mervin Field last month reported that 72% of state voters rated Brown's performance as "fair" or "poor." Some 60% criticized his go-slow approach to aerial spraying of the tiny golden-mawed Medfly, which thus far has afflicted only one commercial farm, but is spreading fast and could ultimately wipe out almost $1 billion of the state's $14.1 billion agribusiness income. Field also found Brown trailing the three most likely Republican nominees--Congressmen Paul N. McCloskey and Barry Goldwater Jr. and San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson--in the 1982 race for the Senate seat held by S.I. Hayakawa.

Admits Brown's father, former Governor Edmund G. ("Pat") Brown: "Anybody would be crazy not to say that Jerry's been wounded. Whether it is mortal or not is hard to say."

Brown has proved resilient before. Few politicians are as canny in voicing a vision while making cold-eyed deals. And his campaign fund is brimming: $1.1 million banked, drawing 17% interest. Says State Assembly Speaker Willie Brown, no relation and not always a friend: "It appears there's a guardian angel watching over Jerry Brown." But the Medfly uproar is the biggest flap besetting the moonbeam Governor.

State investigators caught Brown aides late last year using state-run computers to assemble a private mailing list of potential supporters. Brown was not implicated directly, and the cries of "Computergate" soon faded. Nonetheless, the episode damaged his image. Five years ago, an astonishing 61% of voters agreed with the statement that Brown was "doing more to restore people's faith in political leaders than almost anyone else." Now only 23% agree.

Brown, who is perhaps the nation's most visible advocate of alternate energy sources, may soon face the embarrassment of presiding over the arrests of scores of antinuclear protesters. They are planning a demonstration against the as-yet-unscheduled opening of the Diablo Canyon nuclear power plant near Avila Beach, some 60 miles north of Santa Barbara. Brown had joined a rally against the plant in 1979. But nuclear facilities are under federal jurisdiction, and Brown says he has no choice but to let Diablo Canyon operate once it is licensed. Of the expected protesters, he says: "Those breaking the law will be arrested."

The Governor's gleeful Republican rivals concede that his prospects may improve if the worrisome Medfly infestation--which now threatens 20% of California's land area--can be kept clear of major growing regions through harvesttime. But entomologists are gloomy about their chances of eradicating the pest outright, as Florida and Texas officials did four times between 1929 and 1966. After the first Medflies appeared in the summer of 1980, Brown's aides estimated that the extremely prolific insect could be wiped out by cautious methods: spraying from the ground, stripping infested trees and burying the fruit, releasing sterilized flies with the fertile flies and thus upsetting the breeding cycle.

But beginning last June more than a hundred infestations were reported, almost all in recreational gardens. Farmers and Federal Government scientists, aware that one of the Medfly's favorite fruits is California's valuable orange, started to call for aerial spraying of the pesticide malathion. Brown resisted until July 10, when the Reagan Administration threatened a nationwide quarantine of California produce. Since then the pests have hit the Los Angeles area and have spread so fast that last week the territory under state watch was expanding almost daily. If the Medfly reached all plantings of every crop it infests, California farmers could lose up to $400 million, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture. Embargoes by other states and foreign countries could cost another $500 million. If this happened, U.S. food prices could jump 2% to 4%, at least temporarily, and raise the Consumer Price Index by .25% to .5%, according to the President's Council of Economic Advisers. Already there are major costs for the California farmer. Japan, which buys $118 million in fruits and vegetables from the state, has refused to accept any California produce, though negotiations toward a compromise are under way; Taiwan, South Korea and the island of Yap have also banned California produce.

Brown has been looking for scapegoats, including a Peruvian laboratory and the U.S. Department of Agriculture. The lab apparently shipped an unknown number of flies marked "sterilized" that were in fact still fertile, and these were unwittingly released at the behest of the USDA. Last week Brown's Medfly project chief claimed that there were at least 50,000 mislabeled fertile flies, and that when released they had caused "95%" of the plague. The USDA scoffed, noting that only two fertile Peruvian flies were among the nearly 400 found in traps.

Brown remains as cocky as ever. Says he: "Where the Medfly project has taken action, the Medfly has been brought under control. The Medfly people will go out and get those flies." If he is wrong, the voters will likely tell him to buzz off.

--By William A. Henry III. Reported by Joseph J. Kane/Los Angeles

* The lowest was in April 1980 at the nadir of his second presidential campaign.

With reporting by Joseph J. Kane

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