Stalemate in a Forgotten War

With no end in sight, Iran and Iraq struggle drearily on

Ugly plumes of black smoke hung over the huge Iranian oil refinery in Abadan last week. Just two miles away, Iraqi artillery units kept firing shells into the besieged port at the head of the Persian Gulf. Iraqi MiG-23s swooped overhead in bombing raids, drawing intense antiaircraft fire. One MiG-23, spewing smoke, crashed near Basra, inside Iraq. Huddled behind sandbags or in the ravaged interiors of buildings, the Iranians are conducting an incessant artillery duel with the enemy. Although Iraq held a long strip of Iranian territory (see map), the situation was different toward the north, where Iranian troops had penetrated some 18 miles into Iraq and surrounded the Kolus military base.

The action is by turns desultory or desperate, but the almost forgotten war between Iran and Iraq that grinds on implacably along a 625-mile front began its second year last week, causing at least 50 casualties a day on each side. In all, more than 10,000 Iranians and roughly the same number of Iraqis have died since the Iraqis attacked on Sept. 22, 1980. Their aim: to seize the strategic Shatt al Arab estuary, a waterway long disputed by the two neighboring countries that runs into the Persian Gulf. The Iraqis failed in this objective and everyone has suffered. Now the Shatt al Arab is useless to both countries; some 70 ships have been trapped in the waters by the fighting. As one Iranian diplomat sums up the situation: "There is no end to this crazy war."

Each side continues to claim victories, but neither has the power to win decisively. Preoccupied with its growing domestic difficulties, the government of Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini has been unable to launch a major offensive, although its forces outnumber the Iraqis, 350,000 to 250,000. On the other hand, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein does not dare press the issue much further; resentment over any major increase in casualties could undermine his position at home.

The stalemate is the result of a major miscalculation by Saddam. He attacked not only because he coveted the shared estuary but also because he wanted to appear to be the emerging leader of the Arab world. In addition, he was infuriated by the repeated calls by Khomeini to his fellow Shi'ite Muslims in Iraq, who form 55% of the country's population, to overthrow their President. Saddam was convinced that Iran, swept by revolution, would be unable to resist an Iraqi attack. But the war became one cause in which the multifarious factions of Iran could unite. Explains one Iranian officer: "The war is a black-and-white situation. You need not make any agonizing choices."

The fighting continues to take an enormous economic toll. Iraqi oil production has dropped to an estimated 900,000 bbl. per day, one-third of prewar levels, as Iranian jets have bombed storage and production sites. Iran is now pumping only about 1 million bbl., down from an average of 1.6 million bbl. per day just before the war.

With the estuary closed, Iraq has had to ship its oil through a pipe line to Turkey. Iran, which has never exported oil through the estuary, has continued to use its terminals directly on the gulf.

While Iran is in no immediate danger of economic collapse, U.S. officials believe that the Khomeini regime could face serious trouble within a few months. At the moment, the government is trying to stockpile food, kerosene and cooking oil to get through the winter. In Iraq, however, the standard of living has not really suffered; the country is being helped by subsidies from Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.

Both the U.N. and the Palestine Liberation Organization have failed in their efforts to mediate the conflict. Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the speaker of the Iranian National Assembly, has declared that his country will refuse to negotiate a cease-fire until Saddam withdraws his forces from Iran and submits to a war crimes trial by an Islamic tribunal. That is hardly a likely prospect. And the fighting goes on.

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