Bleaker Harvest

Moscow's shortfall

The normally stoic citizens of the Soviet Union may be facing a long winter of food shortages. Estimates of the size of this year's harvest in the U.S.S.R. are falling almost as fast as the temperature on the Siberian tundra. Less than a month ago, American experts predicted 180 million metric tons of grain, which would be 5% less than last year's production and 24% lower than 1978's record harvest.

Now nervous Soviet grain traders are saying that the yield may plunge to a calamitous 170 million tons, or 28% less than the 236 million-ton goal set forth in the current five-year plan. The chief reasons for the pessimism are drought in the Ukraine, the Volga Valley and elsewhere plus chronic agricultural mismanagement. Soviets quip that the first member of the Politburo to die will be blamed for the mess in agriculture, but it is no laughing matter. Says Marshall Goldman, the associate director of Harvard's Russian Research Center: "The Soviet Union finds itself with a disaster of unprecedented magnitude on its hands."

In several Soviet towns, the size of government-issued loaves of bread is reportedly shrinking. In a lame attempt at rationalization, Soviet newspapers are proclaiming that smaller loaves are more efficient because fewer bread scraps wind up in the garbage can.

Less grain also means less food for livestock. Soviet consumers can thus expect thinner milk and stringier beef this winter. The government has no chance of fulfilling its perennial promise to boost meat consumption, which last year was about 128 lbs. per person, one of the lowest levels in the industrialized world.

To prevent a repetition or escalation of the food protests that reportedly erupted last year at the Gorky and Togliatti auto works, the Soviet leaders are expected to import a record 40 million tons of grain. Some Western experts believe that Soviet ports will have trouble handling such heavy traffic. Much of the grain will come from the U.S., where a bounteous harvest has depressed crop prices and made farmers anxious to sell their surplus abroad. A delegation from the U.S. Agriculture Department travels to Moscov this week with an offer to sell the Soviets 10 million more tons of grain. The U.S has already sold 8.8 million tons of grain since the Carter Administration's partial embargo was lifted in April.

The latest import spree will further strain Soviet finances. The country's trade deficit with the West--about $2.7 billion in the first quarter alone--is swelling at a record pace. Every dollar spent on grain is one less that can be used for badly needed high-technology goods, including computers and oil-drilling equipment.

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