In a World Without Anwar Sadat

By James Kelly

The U.S. begins reshaping its Middle East policies

Ai the consequences of the assassination of Anwar Sadat began to permeate Washington last week, the Reagan Administration found itself scrambling to patch together answers, however temporary, to a host of delicate questions raised by the death of the Egyptian leader. How best to beef up the regime of Hosni Mubarak, Sadat's successor? How to keep the Libyans at bay in the Sudan? Perhaps most important, how to speed up the Egyptian-Israeli talks on Palestinian autonomy? At stake is not only the influence of the United States in a crucial part of the globe, but, ultimately, issues of peace or war in the Middle East.

It was hardly propitious, then, that the Administration's plan to sell five Airborne Warning and Control System planes to Saudi Arabia was rebuffed in Congress twice last week. After four hours of debate, the House of Representatives rejected the AW ACS deal, as expected. But the wide margin of the defeat, 301 to 111, sobered the White House. The next day the Senate Foreign Relations Committee also voted against the sale, 9 to 8. Though the Administration had expected to lose that vote as well, Reagan lobbied committee members by telephone right to the last minute, and supporters of the sale took heart that the vote was so close. Said Republican Majority Leader Howard Baker: "We have a good chance to win this thing. The momentum is going our way."

The AW ACS deal can be blocked only if both chambers reject it. So the Administration is pushing hard for approval from the full Senate, which is now scheduled to vote on the matter next week. Some of the White House lobbying has been less than subtle: in a swap for their votes, Democrat Dennis DeConcini of Arizona was informed that Reagan would not campaign against him next year, while Republican Charles Grassley of Iowa was told that his choice for U.S. Attorney back home would be quickly nominated. A more promising tactic to woo votes is the Administration's proposal to send a presidential letter of "certification" to Congress assuring members that certain conditions for the deal (U.S. access to the data collected by the AW ACS, for example) will be met.

While continuing to fight for the Saudi deal on Capitol Hill, the Administration also moved rapidly to send a strong signal of support to both Egypt and its beleaguered neighbor, the Sudan, which is threatened by the presence of 7,000 Libyan troops in nearby Chad. After conferring in Cairo with Mubarak and Sudanese President Gaafar Nimeiri following Sadat's funeral, Secretary of State Alexander Haig announced that the U.S. would speed up the delivery of arms already promised to Egypt and the Sudan. In addition, Washington last week dispatched two AW ACS planes from the U.S. to Egypt both to symbolize U.S. commitment and to improve that country's air surveillance of Libya. Finally, officials in Washington and Cairo were still working out details of a monthlong joint military training exercise, code-named "Bright Star," scheduled to begin next month in Egypt. Some 4,000 U.S. troops will take part in the maneuvers, which were planned months before Sadat's death. The Sudan will join the exercise, and Washington is trying to persuade Oman and Somalia to participate too.

There are hazards and limitations to all the new U.S. initiatives. Next month's display of military muscle may have scant effect on Libyan attempts to cause trouble in Egypt and the Sudan. U.S. support for Mubarak must strike a careful balance so as not to cast him as little more than a U.S. puppet, imperiling his fledgling hold on his country. The U.S. may also have difficulty delivering on its weapons promises, for the Pentagon has few arms to spare. Both M60 tanks and air defense missiles, for example, are in short supply.

The Administration is working to combat the far more insidious threat of Libyan subversion of the Sudan. It is trying to prop up the country's faltering economy by offering $100 million in nonmilitary aid this year and enlisting financial help from other nations, especially Saudi Arabia, and the International Monetary Fund. The strategic importance of the Sudan is undeniable: the country controls the headwaters of the Nile. Says one State Department official: "If the Sudan falls, Egypt follows."

If the Administration is ready to put more military muscle in the region, it has been decidedly less willing, so far at least, to exercise its influence in a matter of equal importance: persuading Israel to work out an accord on Palestinian autonomy with Egypt. Enough progress on this issue might allow Mubarak to mend his ties with other moderate Arabs, especially the Saudis. If little or no progress is made, however, Mubarak will be under increasing pressure from his Arab neighbors to break Egypt's commitment to the Camp David accords, and to Israel and the U.S. as well.

The Israelis and Egyptians are scheduled to renew the autonomy talks next week in Israel, but Israeli Interior Minister Yosef Burg said last week there had been "no change" in Jerusalem's position. Indeed, Israeli officials were incensed by the suggestion made by former Presidents Gerald Ford and Jimmy Carter that the U.S. would eventually have to negotiate with the Palestine Liberation Organization. Though Reagan reaffirmed his policy against talking with the P.L.O. until it recognizes Israel's right to exist, the Administration is fervently hoping that Begin will make a gesture of accommodation at next week's autonomy talks. Reagan may also finally get around to appointing a special U.S. envoy to the talks to ensure that the negotiations will have a better chance of succeeding by next April. That is when Israel is scheduled to return to Egypt the last slice of the Sinai, the legacy of a man whose violent removal from the Middle East may make future progress toward peace vastly more difficult.

--By James Kelly.

Reported by Johanna McGeary and Gregory H. Wierzynski/ Washington

With reporting by Johanna McGeary, Gregory H. Wierzynski

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