When Push Came to Shove

Hustling to head off a Senate defeat on AWACS

Opposition has surged, then faltered, then lately surged again. Now the final tally is too close to call. The Reagan Administration appears to have tried everything from crude offers of pork-barrel projects to invocations of biblical Armageddon to defend its proposed sale of AWACS radar planes to Saudi Arabia. Yet when the Senate votes on the sale this week, conceded Reagan's Senate proconsul, G.O.P Leader Howard Baker, "it may still be lost."

Something would be lost even in victory. Approval of the sale would enrage Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin and perhaps harden him against further conciliation in the Middle East peace process. Disapproval would humiliate Reagan. In addition, it would likely impel the Saudis to buy comparable Nimrod radar planes from Britain and would weaken U.S. influence with the biggest exporter of oil to the West. Whatever the outcome, the debate has already strained U.S.-Saudi relations and diminished Reagan's standing among American Jews.

The news last week was mostly bad for Reagan. The public tally reached 40 for the sale, 51 against, nine uncommitted. The biggest loss was Democratic Leader Robert C. Byrd of Virginia, who had insisted that AWACS was "not a partisan issue" and thus had led some in the White House to hope for his support. Byrd was so secretive that he had his staff draft two complete and contradictory speeches the night before. Then Wednesday morning, in his red speechifying vest, he spent one hour and four minutes saying no. Argued Byrd: "The primary focus of concern for the countries in the region remains the Arab-Israeli conflict, not the Soviet threat." The AWACS sale would only worsen that conflict, said Byrd, because it would "transfer the mantle of a U.S. client state" to the Saudis, and thus compel them to take a hard line to prove their independence.

Byrd's decision was probably inevitable, given his standing as leader of the Democrats, who overwhelmingly oppose AWACS. His timing was devastating. The White House had lost momentum on all its arguments: that after the death of Anwar Sadat, the U.S. must support moderate Arab nations; that Israel was trying to dictate American policy; that the President's credibility was at stake; that the AWACS sale would make Saudi Arabia a bulwark against the Soviets.

With some Senators Reagan tried religion. Said Democrat Howell Heflin of Alabama: "We talked about the fact that the Middle East, according to the Bible, would be the place where Armageddon would start. The President interprets the Bible to mean that at Armageddon, Russia is going to become involved in it." Heflin remained opposed. With Democrat John Melcher of Montana, the Reagan approach may have been more down to earth: in exchange for a vote, the White House reportedly offered to reconsider funding an experimental coal plant in Butte. Melcher remained undecided.

Should the Senate defeat him, Reagan could by law make the sale on his own authority, a move that would surely anger even supporters in Congress. The President is clearly eager to avoid that drastic contingency. He is scheduled to continue working all his suasive skills on undecided Senators right through the hours of the floor debate. -

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