America's Fretful Mood

By John F. Stacks

Worries over the economy and nuclear war dominate a TIME poll

Nearly a year after he took office, the nation over which Ronald Reagan presides is in a gloomy mood. Americans are worried about the state of their country, anxious about inflation, which they do not expect to ease soon, and feeling the pinch of a recession they fear may linger for a year or more.

Perhaps even more important, and surprising, 63% of the Americans surveyed say they see a real chance that a nuclear war will break out somewhere in the world in the next five years. Because of that concern, there is a strong feeling that the Administration should place a major emphasis on negotiating nuclear disarmament rather than on expanding the U.S. nuclear arsenal. And a significant number of Americans think the President is following just the opposite course.

Despite these worries, however, Reagan, in a way that seems to defy the laws of political gravity, remains popular with his fellow citizens. He is seen by a majority as likable, hard working, a strong leader who is well informed on domestic issues and a President who makes his own decisions and has sound economic ideas.

These are the major findings of a public opinion survey, the fourth conducted this year for TIME by the research firm of Yankelovich, Skelly and White Inc.* Concentrating on foreign policy and economic issues in conducting the survey, the Yankelovich pollsters found a notable disparity between the voters' attitudes toward nuclear disarmament and their own perceptions of the President's position. In the survey, 67% say the U.S. should place major emphasis on reaching an arms agreement with the Soviet Union, while only 25% say priority should be given to expanding our own nuclear arsenal as a deterrent. Although a narrow majority (55%) is optimistic about the outcome of current arms talks with the U.S.S.R., only 29% believe the Soviets will live up to their agreements.

There are signs that Ronald Reagan may one day face political trouble on this issue. In the survey, 42% say they feel Reagan is emphasizing a weapons buildup rather than arms control; 40%, however, believe Reagan is giving priority to disarmament. Political affiliation is a minor factor in the responses: 69% of Democrats favor disarmament over rearmament, as do 61% of Republicans and 67% of independents.

This mood carries over into voter attitudes about nuclear weapons in Europe. Of those surveyed, 55% say placing medium-range nuclear weapons in Europe without having first arrived at some agreement with the Soviet Union will increase the threat of nuclear war. Only 31% take the view that such a move will decrease the danger. According to the survey, 15% of the voters think there is a good chance, and 41% some chance, that nuclear war will break out in Europe within five years.

There is also a clear mandate for cutting back on sales of U.S. arms to other countries. According to Yankelovich, 41% urge a decrease in arms sales, while only 10% think more arms should be sold. The current level of sales is acceptable to 27%. On a very narrow arms issue, 70% oppose the sale of jet fighters and other advanced weaponry to Taiwan, and only 21% favor such a transaction, even though 52% perceive the island republic as an ally we can "definitely trust." (The most trusted ally is Canada, with a 90% approval rating; the least trustworthy is Saudi Arabia, with 27%. The Camp David peace partners have virtually identical ratings: Israel 58%, Egypt 57%.)

Reagan has slipped slightly in the public's estimate of his ability to handle foreign affairs. In September 31% of those who gave an opinion on the question had "a lot" of confidence, but now only 25% express full support. The two principal Cabinet members involved in foreign and defense policies are seen in different lights by the public. There are more voters (26%) who have no real confidence in Secretary of State Alexander Haig than those who have "a lot" of confidence (22%) in him. By contrast, 21% have a lot of confidence in Defense Secretary Caspar Weinberger, and only 13% express no real confidence.

Reagan has been remarkably successful in convincing Americans that a balanced budget is synonymous with fiscal responsibility and will help restore the nation to economic health. In the survey, 20% say balancing the budget is more important than anything else, while another 49% agree that it is important. Yet the public does not seem to concur with the President on how to achieve this goal. In keeping with their cautious attitude on defense issues, 46% say they would reduce military spending, if necessary, to balance the budget; 38% oppose any reduction in defense appropriations. Moreover, significant majorities approve of trying to sop up the red ink by raising taxes on tobacco (74%) and businesses and corporations (59%). At the same time, Yankelovich found that the public is opposed to raising taxes on oil and gasoline (57%) and personal income (73%). The voters also reject overwhelmingly spending cuts on consumer protection (53%), programs for dependent children (56%), entitlement programs like Social Security (71%) and education (78%).

The voters' overall impression of the country's condition has significantly declined. Yankelovich's state of the nation indicator, based on responses to several questions about the economy, showed a drop of 6% since a survey taken in September. At that time, 36% ranked the state of the nation as good; 30% do so now. In October 1980, however, only 20% considered the state of the nation good, and the rating dropped to 18% in January 1981. The latest rating decline appears to be linked to worries about recession. Two out of three voters, and 74% of blue-collar workers, report that they have personally been affected by the recession. Nor is there much hope that this recession will be brief: 68% say the economic decline will last one or two years; only 24% believe it will last six months or less. And 65% think the Government should take some action to end the recession, rather than allow economic problems to work themselves out.

Recession anxiety is beginning to overtake the public's longstanding worries about inflation. Although 51% say they are more concerned about inflation than recession, 37% find recession a greater concern. Among blue-collar workers, 41% are more worried about recession, with 48% of nonwhites feeling that way. Nonetheless, there is also little expectation that inflation will decline much more before 1984. In an echo of the pointed question that Reagan posed to Jimmy Carter during the 1980 presidential debates, the Yankelovich organization asked voters if they were better off now than a year ago. No, answer 59%, while 36% say they are better off.

Despite these pessimistic attitudes and expectations, public confidence in Reagan's economic management persists. Even so, only 34% now say he has made a good start in fulfilling his campaign promise to balance the budget (down from 44% in September). Nearly half (49%) believe the President's policies will help curb inflation. At the same tune, 48% believe the recession is necessary to help bring down prices, although 44% disagree. Asked about Reagan's economic programs, 54% believe this year's tax cuts were the right policy, while 37% disagree.

Of U.S. voters who expressed an opinion, 43% said they had some confidence, and 27% a lot, that Reagan and his Administration can solve the nation's economic problems. Twenty-eight percent have no confidence. By contrast, only 12% have a lot of confidence in the Democratic Party and its leaders, while 40% have no confidence.

While the voters worry about recession, they do not hold the President responsible. Asked to what extent they blame Reagan for the recession, 39% said "not at all." Another 33% blame him "only a little." Reagan is clearly his Administration's chief asset. Asked to choose which words or phrases best describe the President, 85% of voters surveyed agree that he is "a likable person," 75% that he is "hard working," 71% that he "handles crises well" and is "a strong leader." Fewer voters, but still more than half, say he has "sound economic ideas" (55%).

The voters similarly reject many criticisms of Reagan. While 37% agree with the proposition that he is "not well informed on domestic issues," 56% disagree According to the survey, 52% disagree that Reagan leaves too many decisions to his White House staff (37% agree). And 52% disagree that Reagan "has destroyed many of the social gains made over several decades," while 40% agree.

Asked how they felt about Reagan's keeping his campaign promises, 67% say he is making a good start on keeping our defenses strong, and 58% on working effectively with Congress. But only 27% believe he has been effective in reducing the unfairness in American life, and a scant 13% say he has made a good start in cutting youth unemployment. Indeed, 60% agree with the proposition that Reagan "represents the interests of business rather than the average American" (35% disagree). Opinion is closely divided on whether Reagan sets too extravagant a style in the White House: 45% agree.

The miniscandals involving Office of Management and Budget Director David Stockman and National Security Adviser Richard Allen have had little impact on Reagan's standing with the public. In the survey, 60% say his handling of the Stockman affair has not affected their judgment of the President; 55% say the same thing about Allen. A majority of those who have an opinion about Stockman (54%) say he should not be fired; 58% say they are not bothered by stories that Allen had accepted a $1,000 honorarium from a Japanese magazine for arranging an interview with the First Lady.

Asked to rate Reagan's performance as President on a scale of 1 (poor) to 10 (excellent), voters give him a 6 (average) score. Predictably, Republicans are most enthusiastic with a 7.2 rating, and those who describe themselves as liberals are least favorable (a 4.9 ranking). Overall, Democrats give the President a 5.2 rating and independents a 6.2 score.

The Yankelovich poll suggests that the voters are still attracted by Reagan the man and receptive to his economic program. But he faces potential political difficulties on defense and foreign policy matters, and his stunning electoral triumph last November may not lead to permanent gains for his party. In the survey, 47% of the voters call themselves conservatives and only 13% liberals; 41% described themselves as conservatives and 14% as liberals in a Yankelovich poll taken in October 1980. But there has been no significant shift in party loyalties; 47% now identify themselves as Democrats, 17% as independents and only 27% as Republicans. In the October 1980 Yankelovich poll, the figures were 49% Democrats, 19% independents and 26% Republicans.

--By John F. Stacks

*The survey polled 1,001 registered voters nationwide by telephone. The sampling error for a survey of this size is plus or minus 3%. In comparing results of this study with previous TIME-Yankelovich polls, the sampling error is plus or minus 4.5%.

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