Sharon's Plan

Rationale for an invasion

Israeli Defense Minister Ariel Sharon argues forcefully for an Israeli invasion of southern Lebanon. Says he: "If we stick to our goals, this might be the last war we shall fight in the area." So far, Prime Minister Menachem Begin has overruled his hawkish general, but Israel has built up its forces along its northern border and given warning that any new provocation by Palestinian guerrillas would invite a major military response. No one knows just how far Israel would go if it decides to invade. In talks between Israeli military officials and leaders of Lebanon's right-wing Christian Phalange Party, several options have been considered. One is a coordinated pincer movement, with the Israelis moving north into Lebanon while the Christians push southward. Another option is all-out war, which would mean Israeli attacks not only on the forces of the Palestine Liberation Organization but on Syrian bases in Lebanon's Bekaa Valley and along the Golan Heights.

The immediate Israeli military rationale for an attack on southern Lebanon is to wipe out the P.L.O. guerrillas based there. Beyond that, Israel would like to help its allies, the Lebanese Christians, become stronger, and if possible force Syria to withdraw its 30,000-man peace-keeping force from Lebanon. To bolster his military aims, Sharon, with the backing of Foreign Minister Yitzhak Shamir, is also touting a political rationale for such a maneuver. He believes that the P.L.O. would have no place to go except Jordan, from which it was forcibly expelled in a brutal crackdown by King Hussein's military in 1970-71. With a little assistance from Israel, Sharon believes, the P.L.O. could overthrow King Hussein and establish a Palestinian state in Jordan.

Sharon's plan has been quietly boosted by the Israeli Foreign Ministry, which has issued an English-language booklet titled Jordan is Palestine. The tract purports to show that the Hashemite Kingdom is already effectively a Palestinian state, since its population (2.2 million) is more than 60% Palestinian. In Sharon's view, if the P.L.O. were to take over Jordan with Israel's backing, such a Palestinian state would be more cooperative than one centered on the West Bank.

Sharon's scheme has so far failed to convince Begin, who is a more cautious politician than either Sharon or Shamir. When asked about the proposal last week, an aide to the Prime Minister remarked: "That's General Sharon's own theory. It's not Begin's opinion. One can say that Begin admires King Hussein and believes he's a brave man and he is able to survive. Begin thinks the P.L.O. is a source of trouble wherever it is." Neither does Washington give much credence to the Sharon plan. "Farfetched," said a U.S. intelligence official, adding: "It's hard to imagine how you get the P.L.O. from Lebanon into Jordan and how they take over from Hussein. Would the Syrians stand for that? It's not at all clear that B follows from A."

Palestinian leaders in Beirut dismiss any notion that they would try to replace King Hussein, however much he has incurred their enmity. The P.L.O., however, does take the threat of an Israeli invasion seriously, and it has reinforced its strongholds in southern Lebanon. The Lebanese government, meanwhile, is also deeply worried over the threat of a new conflagration on its soil. Lebanon last week sought an urgent meeting of the U.N. Security Council to ask for 1,000 more troops for UNIFIL, the 6,000-member U.N. force stationed in southern Lebanon to help prevent another Middle East war.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.