Lion in Winter

Rumors of Brezhnev's decline

For years, the precarious state of Leonid Brezhnev's health has been a source of worldwide concern. The Soviet President has at various times been reported to be suffering from heart disease, emphysema, leukemia and cancer of the jaw. In public, he has sometimes appeared to be weak and unsteady, occasionally even on his deathbed. At other times, he has seemed relatively fit, meeting foreign dignitaries, delivering long speeches and even traveling to Western Europe.

Once again the alarms rang out. Returning from a four-day trip to the Central Asian city of Tashkent, Brezhnev, 75, was reportedly carried from his Ilyushin 62 jet on a stretcher. The news raised questions not only about his possible successor but, more important, about how the Soviet Union's policies might change under a new leadership.

As rumors swept through Moscow that Brezhnev had suffered a stroke during the flight, the Foreign Ministry tersely announced last week that "President Brezhnev is not ill at all." Other officials were more cautious in their choice of words. Brezhnev is "definitely not seriously ill," said one, explaining that the President was merely exhausted after his trip.

Still, Muscovites could scarcely fail to notice that Brezhnev's highly conspicuous black ZIL limousine was no longer speeding down the center lane of Kutuzovsky Prospekt around 10:15 every morning, taking the leader from his suburban dacha to his Kremlin office. Significantly, TASS reported that a visit to Moscow by South Yemen President Ali Nasser Muhammad had been canceled two days before he was to have met with Brezhnev. Reports that Brezhnev had been taken to the gray, five-story Kremlin clinic reserved for Soviet leaders were reinforced when the clinic's director, Cardiologist Yevgeni Chazov, canceled a trip to England, where he was to attend a meeting of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War.

Brezhnev's condition may have been aggravated by several developments in recent months. One was the shock of the death in January of Party Ideologue Mikhail Suslov, a longtime associate. Shortly thereafter, Brezhnev's daughter Galina was indirectly linked to a scandal involving a singer whom she had befriended.

Brezhnev's failing health may be having a paralyzing effect on the workings of the Soviet government. "The decision-making mechanism is blocked," observes a Western diplomat in Moscow. "Under these circumstances, who in the Kremlin today could make a decision to cut back on the deployment of nuclear missiles or make a serious offer at the Geneva arms talks with the U.S.?"

Brezhnev may well survive his latest illness just as he prevailed over the ailments that periodically weakened him during the past decade. Still, tension within the Kremlin may mount as contenders for power vie for position. Apparently out of the running is Andrei Kirilenko, 75, a onetime favorite who has not been seen in public since mid-February. The most visible contender for the succession is Konstantin Chernenko, 70, a longtime Brezhnev aide who has consistently appeared standing next to the President in recent months. Other Politburo members vying for the succession include Moscow Party Chief Viktor Grishin, Leningrad Party Boss Grigori Romanov and KGB Chief Yuri Andropov.

Some Soviets have begun to speculate that Brezhnev may retire rather than die in office, as Joseph Stalin did in 1953, or be ousted, as Nikita Khrushchev was in 1964. One possible setting for a resignation: the plenary meeting of the Communist Party's Central Committee at the end of April or the beginning of May. Says one Western European diplomat in Moscow: "If they do it like this, I would expect them to pull out all the stops and make it a grand, very respectable, occasion."

But other experienced Kremlin watchers consider the possibility of a resignation remote. Says Cornell University Sovietologist Myron Rush: "Unless Brezhnev is really enfeebled, he will not step down in favor of someone else. Brezhnev's will to power should never be underestimated." Indeed, many Kremlinologists are waiting to see if Brezhnev makes an appearance at the annual celebration to mark Lenin's birthday on April 22.

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