Hard Times in a "Soft Underbelly"

By Janice Castro

G.O.P. Governors in the Midwest are giving up or losing ground

When times are good, the Midwest is an area where the Republican Party can take for granted elephant-size congressional delegations and more than its share of statehouses. Devastated as it is by deepening recession, the region has now become what one presidential adviser calls "the soft underbelly of the G.O.P." To the shock and dismay of party leaders, five Republican Governors have announced that they will not be candidates for office in November. To make matters worse, two other Republican incumbents, Governors James Thompson of Illinois and Charles Thone of Nebraska, are facing unexpectedly tough re-election battles. Result: of the eight Republican-held Midwest governorships on this year's ballots, only one, in South Dakota, seems safe from a possible Democratic takeover.

In Illinois, "Big Jim" Thompson's bid for a third term has been hobbled less by his Democratic opponent, former Senator Adlai Stevenson III, 51, than by what G.O.P. political analysts call the Governor's tendency "to shoot himself in the foot." The once popular Thompson, 46, has been hurt by charges that he used campaign funds for personal expenses, accepted gifts from people who do business with the state government and attempted to get his wife Jayne a federal judgeship. A Chicago Tribune poll last month snowed him trailing Stevenson for the first time, 35% to 37%; a previous survey, in January, had Thompson leading by 39% to 30%.

When Ronald Reagan visited Illinois two weeks ago, he appeared to damn Thompson with slightly faint praise. "I've always been confident of the integrity of your Governor," said the President. "I would be very surprised if he did anything that could be called malfeasance." But one Thompson aide conceded that although the Governor "has not done anything illegal," the accusations of impropriety were damaging "especially when tied to a rotten economy," So Stevenson continues to gain despite his languid campaigning style. The Democrat's coffers, which a few months ago held less than $5,000, are now brimming with $650,000--still less than half the amount the incumbent has raised. White House political operatives acknowledge that Thompson now needs all the help he can get, and they will be aiding him this fall.

They may also have to help out Nebraska's first-term Governor Charles Thone, 58, a colorless conservative who barely campaigned for this month's primaries and who claims this race is his last. Thone, apparently underestimating the backlash among the state's financially strapped farmers, drew only 62% of the G.O.P. vote against two challengers. Farmer Stan DeBoer, a founder of the American Agriculture Movement, captured 31% of the Republican votes, criticizing Thone for his support of Reagan's farm and economic policies. On the Democratic side, a political novice, Robert Kerrey, 38, swept 71% of the ballots in his party's primary. A Viet Nam veteran who won a Congressional Medal of Honor, Kerrey is an imposing speaker, but some of his causes--a gay rights ordinance, for instance--may be too permissive for his generally conservative state. Kerrey, whose campaign ads stress his success as a builder and manager of restaurants and fitness centers, says he is confident of beating Thone "because he is a Republican in tough economic times."

The other G.O.P. problems in the Midwest:

IOWA. Democrats were almost as stunned as Republicans when coolly competent Robert Ray, 53, the nation's senior Governor in years of continuous service (14), announced in February that he would skip a solid shot at a sixth term. "I am at a time in my life," said Ray, "when I might like to try new things." Conceded Timothy Hyde, executive director of Iowa's Republican Party: "Now there is a race, and there wasn't before." State Attorney General Tom Miller, a Democrat, agrees: "There is no Republican now who could win the kind of victory that would sweep other people in with him." The leading Republican candidate to succeed Ray is Lieutenant Governor Terry Brans tad, 35, a well-financed conservative. His probable opponent: former U.S. Attorney Roxanne Conlin, 37, who apparently holds a commanding lead over her two opponents in next month's Democratic primary. A poll released last week by the Des Moines Register and Tribune showed that among lowans who are most likely to vote in November, Conlin leads Branstad 45% to 38%.

MICHIGAN. Friends said that he was simply exhausted after nearly 14 years of trying to arrest the disintegration of his state's automobile-oriented economy. William Milliken, 60, admitted that Michigan's dismal fiscal condition influenced his decision to "run for cover" instead of for office this year, despite pleas from G.O.P. leaders to stay on. Said he: "Michigan's economic problems in these extraordinary times are too serious to have a Governor preoccupied with months of campaigning." Perhaps the worst of those problems is the state's unemployment rate, at 15% the nation's highest. During the remainder of his term, Milliken has promised to devote himself full time to reducing the state's mounting deficit ($300 million currently). To do so, he has already cut $628 million from the $4.6 billion fiscal 1982 budget. Two weeks ago, he won reluctant approval from state legislators for a temporary income tax increase, from 4.6% to 5.6%. The next day, Michigan's economy was dealt a new blow when Moody's Investors Service dropped the state's bond rating from A to Baa-1, the lowest of any state. That will make it difficult for Michigan to borrow needed funds when the new fiscal year begins in October. So far, ten Democrats and seven Republicans have announced themselves as candidates for Milliken's job. No clear leader has emerged.

OHIO. The state constitution bars James Rhodes, 72, who has been Governor for 16 of the past 20 years, from seeking a third consecutive term. But Republican leaders were hoping that Rhodes, the G.O.P.'s resident political heavyweight, would challenge Democrat Howard Metzenbaum for the Senate this fall. With Ohio's budget deficit approaching $1.5 billion and its 12.4% jobless rate running eighth highest in the nation, Rhodes decided to step aside altogether. The Democrats are favored to win the race to succeed him. The front runner: onetime Lieutenant Governor and former Peace Corps Director Richard Celeste, 44.

MINNESOTA. The only retiring Midwestern Republican who faced a clear possibility of defeat this year, Albert Quie, 58, a staunch but low-key Reagan backer, has seen Minnesota's budget drop from a $292 million surplus in 1979 to a deficit that is expected to reach $800 million by summer. This happened even though Quie, who campaigned on a promise to cut taxes in a state many thought was recession-proof, was eventually forced to reverse himself and raise them as the economy faltered. Quie's popularity plunged. As his campaign manager quaintly put it, the Governor decided to step down after "encouragement from a number of quarters conveyed in a number of ways." Now that Minnesota's farmers are disenchanted with Reaganomics, there are signs of life in the long-divided opposition Democratic-Farmer Labor Party. Attorney General Warren Spannaus, the D.F.L. candidate for Governor, is leading the pack of Quie's would-be successors.

WISCONSIN. A witty, flamboyant former college professor who won office in an upset four years ago, Lee Dreyfus, 55, decided not to run again even though he was the odds-on favorite for reelection. Dreyfus, whose trademark is a red vest, cited "personal reasons" and constant battles with the Democratic-controlled legislature for his departure from politics. Meanwhile, he promised to devote the final six months to "managing the state in tough economic times." Without Dreyfus in the race, Wisconsin seems ripe for a Democratic victory this year. Contending for the Democratic nomination are former State Legislator Anthony Earl and James Wood, director of the Center for Public Policy in Madison. More significant: so far, no Republicans have stepped forward for the job. That single fact seems to sum up the sense of dismay being felt among Midwestern Republicans, caught between stubborn economic problems and growing worries about Democratic victories at the polls come November. Jimmy Carter's pollster, Pat Caddell, is not exactly a disinterested observer. But privately, many Republican politicians agree with Caddell's tough assessment that the G.O.P. could get slaughtered politically: "Their strongest candidates simply are not there any longer.''

--By Janice Castro.

Reported by Christopher Ogden/Chicago

With reporting by Christopher Ogden

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