The $150 Billion Question

By William E. Smith

Will Khomeini invade Iraq in order to topple Saddam Hussein ?

A mood of jubilation prevailed in the Hosseynieh mosque, adjacent to Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini's residence in a village north of Tehran. Khomeini, 82, leaned on two aides as he walked up a flight of stairs leading from his house to the balcony of the mosque, from which he often speaks. In the midst of a rambling discourse on domestic issues, he turned to the subject of his army's victories against Iraq in the 20-month-old border war. In effect, Khomeini declared that, come what may, he would square accounts with his enemy Iraqi President Saddam Hussein, whom he described as already "dead." Said Khomeini: "I assure you, this corpse cannot be resuscitated."

Khomeini then turned his attention to nonaligned leaders who are scheduled to meet in the Iraqi capital of Baghdad in September. Declared the Ayatullah: "You will earn yourselves eternal shame if you choose a dead murderer as your leader. You cannot cleanse him of the stains of his crimes, even if you use all the oceans of the world. Don't trouble yourselves."

The Iranian government has inflated its already extravagant demands ever since its army recaptured the Iranian port city of Khorramshahr from Iraqi forces two weeks ago, causing some Iraqi soldiers to attempt to swim across the Shatt al Arab estuary to Iraqi territory. Iran is insisting on the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, payment of enormous reparations by Iraq or its Arab allies, repatriation to Iraq of about 100,000 Iraqi Shi'ite Muslim refugees of Iranian descent, and withdrawal of Iraqi forces from every square foot of Iranian territory. Iran has demanded as much as $150 billion in war reparations from Iraq, although Majlis (parliament) Speaker Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani pointedly noted that Iran would abandon its claim to reparations if Iraq were converted into an Iranian-style Islamic republic.

The next move is Khomeini's: to invade Iraq or merely to press from a distance for Saddam Hussein's overthrow. Iran is bolstering its forces along the border and claiming that it has "legitimate reasons" for invading Iraqi territory. But it is also emphasizing that it does not intend to widen the war to include the whole Persian Gulf, at least not unless the gulf states take hostile action against Tehran.

The Iranians have made clear to both the U.S. and the Soviet Union that Tehran will not take anyone's advice on how to conclude the fighting with Iraq. The Soviets, giving up their efforts to persuade Khomeini to make peace with Iraq, are nervously watching the war and trying to avoid offending either Iran or the Arab states.

Like many of its allies, the U.S. was betting that the Iranians would not invade Iraq, at least not now. The argument is that Iran would rather avoid an all-out fight, preferring to launch occasional border raids while waiting for Saddam Hussein to fall as the pressure on him builds.

Foreign ministers of the Gulf Cooperation Council, a loose alliance that links Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Oman, met in Riyadh last week to consider a common plan. At a similar meeting last month, several gulf states had wanted to censure Syria for its support of Iran. The Saudis had argued successfully that Syria should not be isolated, especially since it was the only Arab country in a position to exercise a moderating influence on Iran. Last week Syria's Deputy Foreign Minister, Nasser Qaddour, declared that his country, despite its close ties to Iran, could not accept an invasion of any Arab state, "because if we agreed to abandon certain parts of Arab territories, we should also have to abandon Palestine.' But the Syrians have no objection to Iran's insistence that Saddam Hussein must go: President Hafez Assad dislikes him as intensely as Khomeini does.

One plan discussed in Damascus and elsewhere calls for Saddam Hussein's replacement within about 90 days by someone who has both military and Baathist party credentials. Among the candidates: Ahmed Hassan Bakr, former President of Iraq (1968-79), who shared power with Saddam Hussein for several years and was finally replaced by him in July 1979. Thus power would remain in the hands of the politically dominant Sunni Muslims. But as a gesture to Shi'ite Muslims, who make up 60% of the Iraqi population, as well as to Ayatullah Khomeini, the Muslim world's ranking Shi'ite, a prominent Shi'ite would become Prime Minister.

With the important exception w Egyptian President Hosni Mu barak, most of Iraq's Arab allies fallen silent. Jordan's King Hussein, has contributed a few soldiers and arms to Saddam Hussein's war effort, said little of late about his old ally Baghdad. The Iraqi government its friends last week, noting that "it no purpose to keep quiet on the pretext not ranks." wanting to Unhappily for cause a split Saddam in Arab ranks seemed to be around a strategy that might end the

--By William E. Smith.

Reported by Raji Samghabadi/New York and Roberto Suro/Beirut

With reporting by Raji Samghabadi, Roberto Suro

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