Low Hopes

POLAND Low Hopes Martial law in all but name

For weeks Poland's ruling junta has been dropping hints that it might lift martial law this week on the first anniversary of the military crackdown. But as Dec. 13 approached, the official propaganda machine began to sound a decidedly cautious note. Newspapers ran interviews with "average" Poles who expressed concern that it might be too soon to ease security measures. The government freed 32 imprisoned Solidarity activists from the Warsaw area, but suggested that many union leaders still behind bars (an estimated 300) would stay there. A front-page headline in a Warsaw daily seemed to sum up the new official line: WE SHALL RETREAT FROM MARTIAL LAW BUT NOT FROM PUBLIC DISCIPLINE.

A special session of parliament, scheduled to begin deliberations this week, will have to decide what to do about martial law, but it looks as if General Wojciech Jaruzelski intends to lift it in name only. The government will still be able to imprison opponents without trial, militarize industry and ban unauthorized public gatherings. Said a Western diplomat: "The whole exercise is primarily for propaganda purposes, but I am not sure if it is intended more for the Polish people or for Western governments."

The Warsaw regime has a vested interest in playing to a Western audience. Government officials estimate that Poland will need about $3 billion in new credits next year to revitalize the economy and meet its obligations on an estimated $25 billion debt to the West. So far, Warsaw's show of reform has not persuaded Western governments to lift economic sanctions.

Angered at the continuing deadlock in relations with the U.S., Jaruzelski delivered an unprecedented tirade against the Reagan Administration. The normally soft-spoken Polish leader railed against Washington's "anti-Polish obsession" and warned that his government would curtail contacts with Americans.

While Jaruzelski raged, onetime Solidarity Leader Lech Walesa, who was released last month from detention, tried to keep out of the public eye. He has written to Jaruzelski, reportedly asking for permission to make a speech at a wreath-laying ceremony at Gdansk this week commemorating Polish workers killed in riots twelve years ago. Walesa will have to choose his words carefully, knowing that any criticism of the government might land him in detention again.

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