Time to Make or Break

By Hugh Sidey

There was talk of impeachment in Abraham Lincoln's third year, and one Senator told of the President's possessing "an unhuman sadness." Lincoln confided to a friend: "The tired part of me is inside and out of reach." But that was the year he issued the Emancipation Proclamation, gave the Gettysburg Address, and realized General Ulysses S. Grant should lead his army.

During Richard Nixon's third year, with the Viet Nam War effort failing and inflation rising, there was speculation about his being a one-term President. His response was what became known as the "Nixon shocks." He devalued the dollar, imposed wage and price controls, and announced he would visit China.

In Thomas Jefferson's third year, his cautious efforts to resolve peaceably the control of the Mississippi River brought suggestions that he had lost his nerve and even his character. When France offered to sell the entire Louisiana territory to the U.S., Jefferson's envoys grabbed it, and the President joyfully endorsed the acquisition. Tragedy was transformed into triumph.

Jimmy Carter holed up at Camp David midway through his third year and proclaimed a national malaise. His remedy consisted of new energy programs and new Cabinet officers. Something stirred inside George Washington during his third year, and he left Philadelphia for two months on a tour of the Southern states, meticulously noting the beautiful belles he encountered along the way ("about 70" in Newbern, "62" in Wilmington and "at least 400" in Charleston).

Woodrow Wilson, desperate to avoid being pulled into World War I, awoke one morning in his third year to the news that the Lusitania had been torpedoed by Germany without warning and dozens of Americans had died. He had contended that the U.S. was "too proud to fight" and "so right" that it did not need to use force. Theodore Roosevelt had a word for Wilson's position: yellow. Wilson and America then were swept along by events.

And now Ronald Reagan faces his third year. History is never a perfect guide, but there does seem to be a tide that crests in the penultimate year of a President's first term. Providence plays a part, but so do more concrete factors. A President's programs often can be clearly judged in his third year. He is known as a person, his faults uncovered, and his strengths measured. The office has an effect: after two years it has either toughened or weakened its holder. Leaders of other nations have also had time to come to conclusions about the President and take actions that affect the U.S. Virtually all the pollsters, including Reagan's expert, Richard Wirthlin, believe that in the third year public opinion, the essence of power, often tilts irretrievably for or against a President.

Unlike Lincoln, Reagan does not seem tired inside. He still rejects Carter's notion of a paralyzing national malaise. The world does not view him as weak, though it often regards him as stubborn and ignorant. The prevailing wisdom among the fallible Washington seers is that Reagan faces more hazards in his third year than any recent President. His programs have not worked so far. An international banking crisis looms, along with rising fears about nuclear war.

A caution: the old cliches about silver linings in black clouds have some basis in historical fact. In turmoil and crisis there is opportunity. Intense challenge can inspire or overwhelm. Which way? Reagan has not said a word to his aides about the third-year mythology. No plans are being made to count beautiful belles in the Southern states. No troublesome territories are up for sale. Every indication is that long meditations at Camp David bore him. He would rather watch movies on a mountaintop. So we have fewer clues than usual to the crucial third year of the presidency. And we have a fascinating year ahead. This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.