A Tangled Exchange of Threats

When reporters at last week's press conference repeatedly questioned him about recent U.S. maneuvers in the Middle East, President Reagan stood firm. He denied "naval movement of any kind" and insisted that four AWACS radar planes had flown to Egypt only for routine "training exercises." But Administration officials had earlier leaked two disclosures: the planes were sent in response to anxiety about a Libyan military threat, and the U.S.S. Nimitz aircraft carrier, chaperoned by three escort vessels, had sailed away from Lebanon and toward Egypt. This was the same Nimitz from which, in August 1981, U.S. F-14 fighters had shot down two Libyan aircraft in the Gulf of Sidra.

In the context of suspected threats and shadowy doubts, the President's crossed signals were understandable. Indeed, the first "clarifications" after the press conference only added to the confusion. TIME has learned why the U.S. intelligence community and the Pentagon were concerned: after a period of relative quiet, Libyan Strongman Colonel Muammar Gaddafi, 40, has apparently returned to his waspish ways. In the past six weeks, he has placed additional military units on the Tunisian border, provoked religious strife in Nigeria, and sponsored terrorists in the Central African Republic. Each of those taunts was minor, but another apparently was not: a series of Gaddafi moves that the Administration perceived as a threat to neighboring Sudan. Reagan decided this was a timely moment for temporary exercises; the visit of the AWACS would silently, but eloquently, reassure U.S. allies and chasten Gaddafi. Moreover, the Nimitz and its planes have entered neither Libyan waters nor disputed airspace. If they do, swore a typically bellicose Gaddafi, the waters will become a "red gulf of blood."

The movements of the Libyan dictator are being closely monitored. About two weeks ago, in the remote southeast corner of Libya, where that country borders Egypt, Chad and Sudan, Gaddafi began to assemble tanks, troops, aircraft and equipment. The target of his destructive designs was unclear. Sudanese officials recently told Washington that Gaddafi was plotting an elaborate coup against their President Gaafar Nimeiri. Having trained Sudanese dissidents as his agents, Gaddafi planned air raids on Khartoum and a takeover of the capital's airport. Last week, however, the Sudanese disclosed that the Libyan-backed saboteurs had been arrested.

Sudan seems an inconvenient victim for Libyan aggression. The 1,700 miles of desert between Tripoli and Khartoum make supply lines impossible; moreover, Gaddafi would risk sparking the anger of Egypt, which has a mutual defense treaty with Sudan. Another possibility, according to many analysts, is that Gaddafi is training his sights on Chad. In November 1980, he sent Libyan troops to Chad to support former President Goukouni Oueddei in his struggle against former Defense Minister Hissene Habre. But after a 1981 withdrawal of Libyan troops, Habre, backed by Egypt, Israel, Sudan and the U.S., defeated Oueddei. Gaddafi is doubtless anxious to reinstall his ally.

Ironically, the country most violently disturbed by these machinations is the one least directly endangered by them: Egypt. President Hosni Mubarak is said to have responded almost hysterically to Gaddafi's most recent feints. At a closed-door meeting two weeks ago, he declared: "If a Third World War will ever start, it will start here--and now." The entire Egyptian air force has been put on general alert, and large army units have been deployed along the Libya-Sudan border. Nonetheless, Gaddafi's meddling seems tireless. Only four weeks ago, the Saudi government executed three officers who were accused of conspiring with Libyan agents to try to overthrow the Saudi royal family. Nobody can tell how and when, if at all, Gaddafi-prompted tremors will erupt. But Reagan's reference to "Libya's attempts to destabilize its neighbors" can be disputed by few. This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.