Once Again at the Brink

By Frederick Painton

Cranky voters deal the Christian Democrats a surprising blow

With the notable exception of the Communists, Italy's fractious political parties had good reason to regret last week's national elections, if only because the results left the country more difficult to govern than ever. The last parliament produced six coalition governments in four years. As if they had been asked once too often to settle such incessant power struggles, the electorate this time delivered what amounted to a stunning protest against the government. The major victims of the voters' pique were the Christian Democrats, who have led or dominated every one of Italy's 43 postwar governments. They lost close to 2 million votes and plummeted nearly 6 percentage points from 38.3% of the vote in 1979 to 32.9%, the lowest level in their 40-year history. Summed up Party Secretary Ciriaco de Mita: "What an unexpected kick."

The Communists did relatively better, falling only from 30.4% to 29.9%. Some of the lost votes went to the Socialists, whose share of the popular vote climbed by 1.6% to 11.4%. Still, that was not nearly the gain that Party Leader Bettino Craxi had hoped for when he provoked the elections, a year ahead of schedule, by pulling out of Prime Minister Amintore Fanfani's coalition government last April. Several small rightist and centrist parties also increased their share of the seats.

The unprecedented shift away from the Christian Democrats reflected voter frustration, but it failed to give the country a new governing direction. As the politicians mulled over the election results and resumed their intricate maneuvering, there seemed to be no realistic alternative to another five-party center-left coalition that may turn out to be as fragile as its predecessors and lack the cohesion to impose the economic rigor the country needs. Inflation is at 16% while unemployment, at 10%, continues an upward march. More urgent is the necessity to slash runaway public spending to reduce a threatening $60 billion 1983 budget deficit. The prospect of a series of weak coalition governments is already stirring speculation about the need for new elections in a year or two, when the Communists might do even better. Said a Western diplomat: "Once again the Italians are at the brink. Let us trust that, as usual, they will manage to pull back."

At Christian Democratic headquarters, the shock of the setback was compounded by its severity. The party's own polls had forecast a vote of 40% to 41%, and Party Secretary De Mita had confidently predicted at least 37%. When De Mita finally emerged on election night, he was shaken. Said he: "We believe the problems of government now are more difficult, more complex. The vote seems to have expressed a judgment of protest, or condemnation." Around the corner, a block away at the Communists' modern, red stucco headquarters, there were scenes of jubilation. As a youthful crowd of 2,000 gathered under umbrellas in a pelting rain, Party Leader Enrico Berlinguer declared, "We shook the tree. Others are gathering the fruit, but no matter; it is the beginning of the end of Christian Democratic predominance. For the first time there is a possibility of a majority of democratic parties without the Christian Democrats." True enough, but so far that possibility is only arithmetic because the Socialists and other small parties refuse to join any coalition that includes Communists.

As the impact of the voters' rebuff sank in, Christian Democratic leaders searched for explanations. Was it a one-shot protest or part of a continuing decline? The most prevalent theory blamed voter fatigue with a party that had been unable to deal with the country's worsening economic ills. Over the years, moreover, the Christian Democrats have been tarred by recurring corruption scandals, alleged Mafia connections and, most recently, charges of links with the Naples underworld. Although the Communists opposed NATO's plans to deploy new nuclear missiles in Italy and other West European countries later this year, the issue provoked little debate and did not influence the vote's outcome.

Some Christian Democratic leaders blamed the setback on costly political mistakes. Under De Mita's leadership the party had sought to renew its image by portraying itself as a reformist force in tune with postindustrial society. That campaign apparently backfired because it alienated people who preferred its role as a repository of traditional values. The Christian Democrats' attempt to glamorize themselves with respected, independent, "celebrity" candidates also failed. Former Bank of Italy Governor Guido Carli fared well enough in Milan, where he was elected a senator, but Film and Opera Director Franco Zeffirelli lost in Florence.

Above all, the Christian Democrats erred in renouncing their time-honored role as the bulwark against a Communist advance. During the campaign, De Mita declared that the party no longer had any ideological objection to the Communists as a democratic alternative. Berlinguer, he noted, had broken with Moscow over Poland and accepted Italy's membership in NATO. The Communists, moreover, were widely perceived to be entering a period of gradual decline. With a minimized menace on the left, anti-Communist voters who had once turned to the Christian Democrats felt free to scatter their votes to other parties.

The task of cobbling together another coalition government promises to be more arduous than usual. Whatever emerges as Italy's 44th postwar government, it will almost certainly be a transitional stop on the way to the 45th. --By Frederick Painton. Reported by Jordan Bonfante and Barry Kalb/Rome

With reporting by Jordan Bonfante, Barry Kalb/Rome This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.