Battling for the Advantage

By James Kelly

France sends fighter-bombers to Iraq, adding a new dimension to a risky war

For Iraqi citizens accustomed to official admonitions about how the three-year battle with their hated neighbor Iran is likely to grind on indefinitely, the pronouncement must have been startling. Meeting with visitors at his palace in Baghdad last week, Iraqi President Saddam Hussein bravely ventured a prediction. "Victory is at hand and not far away," he told his guests."With God's help, the final defeat of the enemy is in sight and within our reach. He is like a slaughtered bull in his death throes."

God's help aside, Saddam had at least some reason for his confidence. The French government was sending its long-anticipated shipment of five Super Etendard* fighter-bombers to Iraq. Though some confusion remained about whether the jets had actually arrived in Iraq (Baghdad said no, and Paris would not comment), there was little debate about the stakes involved. The influx of new weaponry threatened to escalate the Iran-Iraq war, which in turn could disrupt the supply line of oil from the Persian Gulf.

As if to signal its concern, the Reagan Administration announced that three ships, with 2,000 Marines aboard, were on their way to the Indian Ocean through the Suez Canal. Administration officials contended that the convoy, which had beefed up the naval contingent off the coast of Lebanon, was no longer needed there. Although Washington described the maneuver as routine, its timing seemed to belie the official explanation. It was also revealed last week that the White House wanted to revive a plan, first floated by Henry Kissinger in 1975, to train and equip up to two Jordanian army divisions to serve as a special strike force in the gulf region. Under the proposal, the divisions would receive C-130 transport planes, armored personnel carriers and Driver-crossing equipment. The project, vigorously opposed by Jerusalem, was still being discussed with Congress when Israelis leaked word of it in hopes of killing the plan.

Concerns about the delivery of the jets stem from an all-too-plausible scenario. Iraq already possesses up to 40 French Exocet air-to-surface missiles, the weapon that won headlines last year when Argentina used it successfully to sink two British ships in the Falklands war. Once the Super Etendards, which can fly up to 733 m.p.h. at low altitudes and have a radius of 530 miles without refueling, are armed with the Exocets, the Iraqis will be better able to threaten Iran's oil exports. Though the missiles cannot knock out the installations at Kharg island, which are well defended and have already withstood Iraqi bombing, the Exocets could be used to discourage vulnerable tankers from calling at the Iranian port. Without ever firing a shot, Iraq could diminish Tehran's main flow of income, thus crippling Iran's ability to wage a war of attrition against the economically strapped Iraqis.

When the jet deal was first mentioned last February, the Iranian government immediately warned that if the planes were delivered and its oil installations were seriously damaged, Iran would prevent any ships from entering or leaving the gulf (see map). Such a maneuver would have far-reaching consequences. Twenty percent of the non-Communist world's oil supplies pass through the 40-to-60-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz. More than 40% of Western Europe's oil imports and 13% of U.S. oil comes from the gulf, while Japan depends on the region for over 60% of its supply.

The government of Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini left no doubt of how it views the new development. "The Persian Gulfs jugular vein is in our hands," declared Iranian state radio. "Should an attempt be made to use the planes to damage Iran's vital resources, Iran would turn the Strait of Hormuz into a quagmire for the West's imperial objectives." Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, Speaker of the Iranian parliament, put it more chillingly. If Tehran bottles up the gulf, he warned, "the West will have a very cold winter."

Throughout the summer, several of France's allies, including the U.S., West Germany, Britain and Japan, have tried to dissuade the government of President Francois Mitterrand from delivering the planes, but the nations succeeded only in postponing the shipment for several weeks. The French, who still refuse to confirm or deny that the planes were sent, made no apologies. Foreign Minister Claude Cheysson down-played the effect of any such shipment. "Five planes, more or less. What does that change?" he asked rhetorically. Other officials noted that the shipment was consistent with France's policy of quite openly favoring Iraq over Iran. The French also claimed that once Iran realizes that Iraq will always be well equipped, it will abandon its hope of wearing the Iraqis down and accept Saddam Hussein's offer to seek a negotiated settlement. One additional reason, rarely mentioned but nonetheless important: if Iraq is defeated, Baghdad will be unable to repay an estimated $5 billion to $7 billion it owes Paris.

Iraqi officials insist that their goal is not to halt Iranian exports but only to be allowed to increase their own. Besides blocking Iraqi ships from using the gulf, Iran destroyed Iraq's main oil facilities at Fao in 1980. In 1982 Syria turned off the valve on Iraq's pipeline to the Mediterranean. Since then, Iraq has been exporting 3 only about 650,000 bbl. per day via pipeline through Turkey, I compared with a daily total of ; more than 3 million bbl. before the war. Iran, on the other hand, is still able to ship about 51.7 million bbl. per day.

Iraq has searched for peaceful ways to increase its oil exports. Saudi Arabia tried to persuade Syrian President Hafez Assad to reopen the pipeline to the Mediterranean, but to no avail. Baghdad struck an agreement in principle with the Saudis to move oil across the kingdom to the Red Sea port of Yanbu. A completely new pipeline, however, would take at least four years to build. Meanwhile, the Iraqis are trying to rebuild their facilities at Fao.

Though the war has badly bruised the economies of both countries, Iraq has suffered more. Squeezed by the Iranian blockade and the fall in world oil prices, Baghdad saw its oil revenues slide from $26 billion in 1980 to an estimated $7.5 billion this year, hardly enough to cover its war costs. Earlier this year, when its foreign reserves had dwindled to some $2 billion (from more than $30 billion in 1980), Iraq stopped writing checks to its creditors. For countries like Japan, which had one-sixth of all its foreign construction projects in Iraq, and France, which expected $1.8 billion in payments this year, the decision came as a rude shock. Deferred-payment plans eventually were negotiated, but Iraq still faces a budget deficit this year. The government is so hard up that it conducts a form of national telethon soliciting money and gold for the war effort. Every night on TV, a newscaster reads off the names of the latest contributors, while some of the donors are shown gazing at their donations.

After rescheduling its debts earlier this year, Iraq slammed the door on almost all foreign imports with the exception of weapons and food. The essentials are still available, but Iraqis must sometimes stand in line to buy their chicken and milk. Due to import restrictions, it is hard to find new televisions, radios, auto spare parts and household equipment. Throughout Baghdad, construction proceeds at halfpace, and no new projects are being contracted.

The war has bogged down into border skirmishes between troops holed up in World War I-style trenches. Iran has abandoned its tactic of sending waves of untrained young soldiers in suicide attacks across enemy lines. The Iranian assaults now are sharper and better directed, but the results are the same: the soldiers succeed in punching a hole through Iraqi lines, but Baghdad rushes in reinforcements and pushes the Iranians back. Though estimates vary, at least 125,000 soldiers from both sides have been killed and tens of thousands wounded. According to U.S. intelligence sources, Iran has taken about 50,000 Iraqi prisoners, while Iraq holds some 7,000 Iranians.

As the war stretches on, the U.S. and the Soviet Union find themselves in strikingly similar positions: both have strategic interests at stake in the battle, but neither superpower has much leverage over either antagonist. Moscow continues to supply Saddam with new planes and ammunition, but it also gave Syria the go-ahead to ship Soviet-supplied arms, including antitank rocket launchers, to Iran. The result: neither side trusts the Kremlin. The U.S., which does not have an embassy in either country and has virtually no hope of repairing ties with Iran while Khomeini is alive, has remained studiously neutral. Over the past two years, however, relations with Iraq have warmed slightly. William Eagleton, who heads the U.S. Interest Section in Baghdad, is treated as an ambassador in all but name. The State Department has removed Iraq from its list of countries that support terrorism, making it possible for Iraq to receive export credits. Iraq has practically promised to renew formal ties once the war is over. The U.S., however, has refused to sell Iraq any weapons, including the antitank missiles that are at the top of Saddam's shopping list.

France's delivery of the Super Etendards makes the prospect of peace more distant. Perhaps the wisest words on the Iran-Iraq conflict came last week from Abolhassan Banisadr, who served as President of Iran in the early days of the Khomeini regime. "For us," he said from his heavily guarded compound outside Paris, "the war will only end with a general embargo on arms deliveries to both belligerents." France did not heed those words, and there is little chance that other arms merchants will.

*The French word etendard means battle flag or standard. The word super was added to distinguish the plane from an older, less sophisticated model.

With reporting by Barry Hillenbrand, Thomas A. Sancton This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so viewer discretion is required.