Looking Ahead

China drops hints about 1997

Seven times since September 1982, negotiators from China and Britain have gathered in Peking to discuss what will happen to Hong Kong after 1997, when the British lease on 90% of the territory expires. Seven times they have emerged with vague statements that their discussions proved "useful and constructive." But with the eighth round of talks due to begin this week in Peking, Chinese officials mysteriously became quite forthcoming. In San Francisco last week, Premier Zhao Ziyang declared that "Hong Kong will remain unchanged for at least 50 years after 1997." In an interview in the authoritative Peking weekly magazine Outlook (circ. 300,000), a Chinese spokesman on Hong Kong, Ji Pengfei, outlined a remarkably specific blueprint for absorbing that tiny outpost of capital ism into the vast citadel of Communism.

The gist of Ji's proposal is that under Article 31, introduced into the Chinese constitution 13 months ago, the British crown colony would become a "special administrative zone." As such, Hong Kong would remain a free port and retain its convertible dollar. The economic interests of Britain and other countries would, says Ji, be guaranteed by law. In addition, a locally selected administration would exercise independent judicial power and control its own system of passports and visas. All the new top officials would be Hong Kong residents of Chinese ancestry.

Beneath its surface, Ji's statement delivered pointed messages to a variety of listeners. It told Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, who seems prepared to concede the sovereignty issue but hopes to see British officials running Hong Kong even after 1997, that she may be disappointed. By reiterating that "all policies toward Hong Kong can also be applied to Taiwan, and Taiwan may receive even more favorable terms," Zhao made apparent

China's yearning to tempt Taiwan back into the administrative fold. In addition, the public optimism was doubtless designed to reassure Hong Kong's notoriously jumpy financial markets. When negotiations were foundering last year, the Hang Seng stock market index dipped 25% in three months, down to 785.48; after last week's comments, the market index soared above 1000 for the first time since August.

Yet the issue is by no means resolved.

Even if Britain accepts a proposal similar to Ji's outline, how will a smooth transition be worked out? Will the Chinese be as liberal in practice as they are on paper? How, above all, can a country famous for its recent history of revolutions, revisions, upheavals and counterrevolutions guarantee the stability of the independent-minded city-state over the next 63 years? Says a Hong Kong Chinese who has moved his residence to the U.S.: "If the Chinese could guarantee 50 years without change in Hong Kong, they would not be Communists. They would be capitalists."