Strait Talk

Worries about Hormuz

There is no way that we could stand by and see that sea-lane denied to shipping." So said President Reagan last week, referring to growing concern that fighting between Iran and Iraq could close the 40-to 60-mile-wide Strait of Hormuz, the Persian Gulf shipping lane through which 20% of the West's crude oil travels. That threat grew more worrisome as Iran launched yet another offensive, its biggest since July 1982, against Iraq. By week's end Iranian forces had occupied 37 Iraqi border villages, and were engaged in fierce hand-to-hand battles with Iraqi defenders on the outskirts of Al Azair. Thousands of men on both sides were reported killed. Said a U.S. diplomat: "The worse the fighting, the greater the chance for miscalculation."

The danger was that if Iraq suffered a major battlefield defeat it might decide to use the Super Etendard fighter-bombers it bought from France last fall to attack Kharg Island, Iran's principal oil terminal. Iran has repeatedly said it would retaliate by blockading the strait, thereby halting shipment of most of the oil produced by Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iran. Last week Iranian officials warned again that if the U.S. and its supporters try to intervene in the war "their fate would be decisively worse than their fate in Lebanon." The U.S. has been urging restraint on Iraq to avoid any provocation that would escalate the conflict. But should the strait be closed, a State Department official stressed, "Reagan is determined to stick to his word, and we could quickly find ourselves in a very nasty little war."

With that in mind, the U.S. and Britain have drawn up contingency plans to protect the Persian Gulf in the event of interference with international shipping. Both countries are prepared to escort vessels entering and leaving the gulf, carry out minesweeping operations and if necessary use force to prevent Iranian sea or air efforts to intercept oil traffic. The U.S. Navy maintains four ships in the Persian Gulf, besides a 30-ship flotilla, led by the aircraft carrier Midway, in the Indian Ocean. Britain has a missile-equipped destroyer, a modern frigate and a tanker in the region.

Some Pentagon officials feel the threat to the strait has been exaggerated. The waterway is no longer as crucial a sea-lane as it was in the 1970s when up to 60% of the world's oil supplies moved through its waters. Today that figure is considerably smaller. Indeed, Iran would have the most to lose if shipping were interrupted: it currently exports 2.6 million bbl. per day through the Strait of Hormuz. That crude is expected to bring Iran more than $24 billion this year, half of which would go to finance Iran's war with Iraq. qed