Ogling the Ayes of Texas

By Evan Thomas

With 169 delegates at stake, the Democrats brace for High Noon

Few things in this world stir Texans more than a brawl, whether between high school football teams, gamecocks, refinery workers or Democrats. Texas Democrats have more warring factions--from Big Oil to Boll Weevil to Prairie Populist--than just about any other political party west of Italy's Christian Democrats. Lone Star politicians relish their infighting so much that when State Representative Ben ("Jumbo") Atwell was asked a few years back if he was thinking of leaving the legislature, he responded, "What? And give up show biz?"

Riding into this prickly cactus patch are Presidential Contenders Walter Mondale, Gary Hart and Jesse Jackson, for whom the May 5 caucuses loom as a High Noon. Actually, a more apt Texas metaphor for Hart might be the Alamo. Reeling from his defeats in Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania and, last week, Missouri, he vowed to start winning again in the West. A bad loss in the Lone Star State could start the vultures circling. For Jackson, the state's large Hispanic vote tests his ability to make his "rainbow coalition" a bit less monochromatic than it has been so far. For Walter Mondale, Texas-- with 169 delegates at stake--offers a chance to widen his delegate lead over Hart (1,114 to 590, with 1,967 needed to clinch the nomination) and to prove his electability outside of Big Labor's shadow.

Appearances do not favor Mondale. A buttoned-up Norwegian who drinks diluted Scotch, and only sparingly at that, he is no cowboy. Lanky Coloradan Hart comes a lot closer, at least to the urban variety. He wears cowhide boots and an oversize brass belt buckle, and is the only Democrat who can wear a ten-gallon hat and look as if he means it. Nor does the territory offer fertile turf for the former Vice President. Texas is a right-to-work state where unions are about as popular as taxes and Big Government is loved even less than the Washington Redskins. Hart's anti-Big Labor, pro-energy-development stands should play better than Mondale's traditional New Deal politics.

Yet if Hart beats Mondale, it will be a major upset. The main reason: Texas' arcane caucus system. To qualify, voters must first cast ballots in the congressional and local primaries during the day, then return to the polls in the evening to choose presidential candidates. It is a system that favors organizations with the proven ability to turn out party regulars. In other words, the Mondale machine.

"They're organized," admits Hart's Southwestern coordinator, John Pouland. "And they'll have the opportunity to be disproportionately represented in the caucuses." Complains Hart: "The caucuses are stacked against us." In 1981 and 1982, before Hart even announced, Mondale had visited Texas 14 times, methodically lining up the endorsements of almost every important party leader.

Mondale's most influential backer may be San Antonio Mayor Henry Cisneros, Texas' numero uno Hispanic leader. Cisneros says that Mondale's "personal relationships" within the state's Mexican-American community, many dating back almost two decades, "engender a deep-seated loyalty that is hard to counter in a caucus environment." Because of rigorous voter-registration efforts, there may soon be almost 1 million Hispanics on the rolls, twice as many as in 1976. They will make up about a fifth of the voter turnout, and Mondale could win as many as three out of four. Jackson is expected to carry the black vote, which is roughly half the size of the Hispanic, but little beyond that. Says Hispanic Leader Ruben Bonilla: "Hispanics are pragmatic. They are going to vote not for hope, but for the real potential of the presidential candidate. Jackson's candidacy is not a pragmatic one."

In Texas, where Government bailouts are unpopular, Mondale will downplay the selling points he used so well in the East, like his helping to rescue Chrysler from bankruptcy and advocating trade barriers to protect industry. Instead, say his aides, Mondale will preach "prairie populism" and stress that he worries about "real people, real jobs and real pocketbooks." He will particularly target large areas of poverty like the Rio Grande Valley, where unemployment is 23%.

Among more affluent voters, issues that cut against Hart in the East should help him in Texas, particularly his vote against the windfall-profits tax on domestic oil and his proposal of a $10-per-bbl. fee on imported oil. Furthermore, Hart has inherited many of John Glenn's deep-pocketed donors. Oil Baron James Calaway, who helped raise $1 million for Glenn, raised $125,000 for Hart in a single evening this month. In the Texas caucuses, however, organization and party loyalty count for more than money. Hart's Yumpies (young upwardly mobile professionals) are likely to feel there are more enticing things to do on a Saturday night than go to a caucus in a sweaty meeting hall.

Hart is aiming for "young Democratic activists," says Coordinator Pouland. Working with Dallas Congressman Martin Frost, Hart's state chairman, Pouland has helped place operatives in the half of the state's 6,600 precincts that contains 90% of the vote. They are concentrating especially on sprawling West Texas, where, says Pouland, "anti-Mondale feeling is pretty strong." Hart wants to revive his New Hampshire touch by warming up to voters through small, personal meetings, a difficult task for a shy, cool man, and by stressing his independence from special interests. At a barbecue last week in Amarillo, Hart did his best, enthusiastically shaking hands with an 8-ft. cowboy on stilts and boldly declaring, "America needs a President who has the courage and the leadership to say no to powerful lobbies that want bailouts... to powerful unions that want legislation that will shut off trade." Later, in Lubbock, he proclaimed, "We must have the courage to take change by the throat."

That kind of courage can raise a few hackles, as Hart discovered earlier in the week, outside St. Louis. At a meeting with union leaders from a McDonnell Douglas Corp. plant, he discussed his opposition to building more F-15 and F/A-18 fighters, arguing that the planes are too expensive and not maneuverable enough. But they provide nearly 14,000 jobs to the workers of McDonnell Douglas, a fact that the labor leaders there vigorously pointed out to him. Last week Mondale beat Hart by an overwhelming 60% to 20% in the Missouri caucuses. As he did in New York, Jackson almost caught Hart, winning 16% of the voters, many of whom jammed inner-city polling places in St. Louis and Kansas City.

Despite his long string of defeats (broken only by a narrow, 45% to 40%, victory in Arizona last week), Hart continues to argue that he is more electable against Ronald Reagan in November. A mid-March Gallup poll backed up his claim, showing that Hart would beat Reagan, 49% to 47%, while Mondale would lose, 52% to 44%. But last week a new Gallup poll showed Hart's edge diminishing: Mondale continued to trail by the same distance (52 to 44), but Hart was now also behind Reagan (49 to 46).

Hart's claim that he is more electable is based on his appeal to independents. Mondale partisans counter that their man would be a stronger nominee because he could better turn out the core Democratic constituencies--labor, minorities, the elderly and the poor. But Mondale is clearly concerned that he must reach out beyond these loyal supporters to beat Reagan.

In a major speech last week in Cincinnati, Mondale began sounding less like Hubert Humphrey and more like, well, Gary Hart. With stirring Kennedyesque rhetoric, Mondale intoned, "We must make history, not just watch it. We must invent the future, not just accept it." In the speech he referred to the future, a patented Hart byword, a total of 15 times.

But the Mondale camp is not yet writing Hart off. The nightmare of New Hampshire is still too vivid. "Has the race refocused back on Mondale as an issue?" worries Deputy Campaign Manager Paul Tully. "That's the danger." Texas voters are notoriously ornery, and when it comes to facing a fiercely independent electorate, being the favored front runner has not proved much of an advantage this year.

--By Evan Thomas.

Reported by Sam Allis with Mondale and David S. Jackson/Houston

With reporting by Sam Allis, Mondale, David S. Jackson