Straws in the Desert Wind

The signs are inconclusive but fascinating. First, Iran has failed to launch the "all-out" ground offensive that was supposed to destroy the Iraqi government of President Saddam Hussein. Then, last week, both Iran and Iraq, at the behest of United Nations Secretary-General Javier Perez de Cuellar, agreed to refrain from attacking civilian targets, at least for a while. Later they also agreed to allow U.N. observers to be stationed between their armies. In the meantime, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Hashemi Rafsanjani, declared that Iran would call off its assaults on shipping in the Persian Gulf if Iraq would do the same.

What does all this mean? One opinion is that Iran's Ayatullah Ruhollah Khomeini is coming around to a more pragmatic position. Another is that he is simply trying to convince the U.S. that Iran is not out to get Washington's gulf allies and that the U.S. should therefore not "tilt" in favor of Iraq. The latter view assumes that Iran's war aims have not changed and will not until Saddam Hussein falls or Khomeini dies.