They Also Made History

By GEORGE J. CHURCH

Sweeping, overwhelming, historic--Ronald Reagan's 1984 landslide merited all those terms. But one thing it could not be called was unexpected. In January, White House polls showed Reagan to have a chance of carrying nearly every state; by midyear, national surveys put his lead over Democrat Walter Mondale near the final margin of 18 percentage points.

If not unexpected, however, Reagan's electoral dominance in 1984 ranks as one of the more improbable phenomena in the history of American politics. Who, even two years ago, would have bet that an intense conservative often accused of partiality to the rich would win a majority among voters earning between $12,500 and $25,000 a year? That the candidate whose presidency gave birth to the term gender gap would carry the women's vote by a thumping 57%? That the oldest President ever would reap 59% of the ballots cast by voters ages 18 to 24?

One explanation is that most voters simply judged Reagan's policies to be working. Early in 1984, the nation was enjoy- ing its highest rate of economic growth in 34 years, its lowest inflation rate in twelve years and a rapid drop in unemployment. Reagan boasted that in four years the Soviets had not added an inch to the territory under Communist control. After four successive presidencies widely regarded as disappointing, Americans strongly approved a White House tenure that could be described, for the moment at least, as a success.

But there was more to Reagan's triumph than that. The President has proved himself more adept at reading, and manipulating, the popular mood than any Chief Executive since Franklin D. Roosevelt. Sophisticates might have sneered at his TV commercials depicting an America of Norman Rockwell prosperity and harmony, at the chants of "U.S.A.!" that carried over from the Olympics to rock Reagan rallies. But the President correctly divined that Americans were yearning to experience once more the emotions of pride and patriotism.

Reagan is now running for his place in the history books. Over the past year he has markedly softened his once strident rhetoric toward the Soviets; Reagan wants to be remembered as the President who achieved a verifiable agreement reducing nuclear weapons. Domestically, the deficit Reagan ignored during the campaign is continuing to swell. To shrink it, Reagan is proposing cuts in Government spending even more drastic than those he achieved in 1981, while remaining adamant that the military gets virtually everything it feels it needs. He will require help on Capitol Hill if he is to win those budget cuts, but the Republican Party was unable to convert the President's electoral triumph into any significant strengthening of its representation in Congress. Before long, in any case, the G.O.P. will be divided by a battle for the 1988 nomination.

Above all, under the 22nd Amendment Reagan's second term must be his last. To succeed as a lame duck, he will have to revise some familiar assumptions about presidential power and its exercise. But then, he has spent four years doing ex- actly that.