Israel Long Goodbye

By Pico Iyer

High on a hilltop, bareheaded and wrapped in a green parka, Israeli Prime Minister Shimon Peres, 61, surveyed the Israeli front lines at the Awali River, just north of the Lebanese coastal town of Sidon. "The whole nation appreciates what you did under difficult conditions," the Prime Minister later told his troops. "We never intended to stay here. But we will still keep our eyes open to what dangers could evolve for Israel."

Those dangers were amply apparent last week as Israel continued the three- stage withdrawal from southern Lebanon announced by the government four weeks ago. The first stage of the pullout, which involves the movement of Israeli troops from the front-line positions they have held since 1982 to new locations 17 miles south of the Awali River, will be finished by Feb. 18. The entire operation should be over within five to eight months.

The reporters who drove up the potholed, narrow mountain roads of the withdrawal route to see Peres at the front were told by Israeli soldiers to wear flak jackets. With reason: every day last week there were new reports of violence as Israeli convoys 30 or 40 vehicles long carried south everything from prefabricated sheds to concrete roadblocks. Already land mines and sniper attacks by Arab guerrillas have claimed as many as five Israeli lives. The Israel Defense Forces say that they have killed a like number of terrorists. Shi'ite Muslim Leader Nabih Berri, who is also the Lebanese Cabinet minister responsible for southern Lebanon, vowed that assaults against the Israelis would not cease. "You will see resistance like you have never had before," he warned.

But that could be the least of the violence. Many in the region fear that as soon as the Israelis are gone, southern Lebanon will explode into bloody anarchy as sectarian groups, including the newly powerful Shi'ite Muslim extremists, begin settling old scores. Last week 700 Lebanese troops joined the 1,200 already deployed in the Kharroub region between Beirut and the Israeli lines on the Awali. Their role: to fill the gap left by the departing Israelis.

The Israelis have made it clear that they will not return to areas they have abandoned to prevent bloodletting among the Lebanese. But they insist that they will react if they perceive a direct threat to northern Israel. "Israel will have to respond to attacks," said Uri Savir, Peres' spokesman. The Prime Minister admitted that "nobody on earth can promise that we won't go back in and destroy." Peres, however, was unequivocal in expressing his hope that Israel would be leaving Lebanon for good. "We do not want to play the slightest role in Lebanese politics," he told reporters.

The withdrawal of Israeli troops promises to help repair Israel's relations with Egypt, which has long called for an Israeli pullout. Earlier this month Israelis were allowed to participate in the Cairo Book Fair for the first time in two years. Last month the two countries resumed negotiations over disputed border areas after nearly two years of silence. But there was a failure to resolve the major issue of Taba, a 250-acre wedge of palmy beachfront on the eastern edge of the Sinai, which is claimed by both countries. Peres and Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak sounded apprehensive last week about future discussions. "I cannot say that I am satisfied with the mutuality of the effort," said Peres. Declared Mubarak: "I am asking the Israelis to be more flexible." In this fashion, the two countries continue to shiver through what they call their cold peace. In southern Lebanon, however, any kind of peace would be welcome.

With reporting by Hays Gorey/Sidon