Crucial Players in the Power Game

By William R. Doerner

One is the son of a peasant who began his career as an agronomist and ended up as a master of the diplomatic arts. Another is a former shipyard engineer with a reputation for rudeness and arrogance. A third is a tough fighter against corruption who once reportedly fell into disfavor and was sent packing to Cuba as Ambassador. And the fourth is a former KGB chief from the Muslim south. This is the quartet of crucial players who will determine how smoothly and how quickly Mikhail Gorbachev will be able to accumulate power.

The four, all members of the Politburo, are Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko, 75, Heavy Industry Boss Grigori Romanov, 62, Premier of the Russian Republic Vitali Vorotnikov, 59, and First Deputy Premier Geidar Aliyev, 61. They will probably form the core of the collective leadership that will guide Gorbachev in the beginning. With the exception of Gromyko, a full member of the Politburo for twelve years, they are Gorbachev's contemporaries, members of the long-awaited new generation of Soviet leaders. The generational distinction may mean less in the future than it has in the past, however, largely because Gorbachev shrewdly deferred to his elders during the transition from the leadership of Yuri Andropov to that of Konstantin Chernenko and avoided an old-young confrontation. As a Western diplomat in Moscow puts it, "Gorbachev was smart not to push Chernenko out. He just waited for the old man to drop."

In due course, Gorbachev will install men of his own choosing in positions of power. He should have little difficulty in doing so, since the Politburo has only ten members, in contrast to the 14 that had been usual under Leonid Brezhnev. But he probably will take his time in choosing his team, seeking instead to allay any suspicion that he is trying to monopolize power too quickly. "Gorbachev does not need to pack the Politburo with his own men," says one diplomat. "There do not seem to be any challengers to his rule as of now."

The man who stands to gain the most from Gorbachev's elevation, in the opinion of many Kremlinologists, is Gromyko. He placed Gorbachev's name in nomination at the Central Committee meeting that followed Chernenko's death, in effect giving the Old Guard's blessing to the younger generation's "coming of age." In return, Gorbachev has paid careful respect to the durable Foreign Minister. Gorbachev too has stressed the need for arms negotiations and has called for improved U.S.-Soviet relations in terms similar to those used by Gromyko in recent months. Surmises Jerry Hough, a Soviet specialist at Duke University: "Gorbachev is linking himself to the foreign policy of Gromyko." That dependence could weaken as Gorbachev gains greater experience in world affairs, but for the moment Gromyko is viewed not only as the custodian of Moscow's foreign policy but also as its chief architect. One result, says Soviet Expert Dimitri Simes from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington: "Gromyko is going to be a major power broker."

At last year's Supreme Soviet session, Gorbachev spent a good deal of time whispering to former Leningrad Party Boss Romanov. The man in charge of heavy industry, which includes defense plants, Romanov is considered a hardliner of the sort favored by the military. He was widely rumored to be a candidate for Defense Minister when the job opened up last year with the death of Dmitri Ustinov, but instead Marshal Sergei Sokolov was chosen. Should the reportedly ailing Sokolov retire or die, Romanov could become the next Defense Minister.

Romanov possesses an abrasive personal style, usually directed at underlings. Members of a U.S. Senate group that met with him in Leningrad in 1978 were shocked at his surly treatment of an interpreter. There is also a scandal in his past: he has been dogged by stories that he borrowed priceless china from Leningrad's Hermitage museum for a daughter's wedding reception and that some pieces were broken. But he is a realist in politics. "Romanov has a controversial reputation, but he will remain a loyalist unless Gorbachev makes a major mistake," says Simes.

The Soviet leader with the best chance of succeeding Premier Nikolai Tikhonov, who turns 80 in May, may well be Vorotnikov, in part because it is a logical step upward from his current position as premier of the Russian Republic. Like Gorbachev, he was a protege of Andropov, who apparently tabbed Vorotnikov to clean up corruption. Vorotnikov had conducted an earlier anticorruption drive with such fervor that he seemingly incurred the wrath of powerful enemies and was shipped off to Cuba as Soviet Ambassador from 1979 to 1982. But his star has ascended steadily since.

Another Andropov man who seems destined for higher office is Aliyev, who hails from the small, predominantly Muslim republic of Azerbaijan, on the Iranian border. A KGB official, he reportedly once declared that Soviet corruption could only be fought with means beyond "socialist legality." Aliyev made his name as first secretary of the Azerbaijan Communist Party; he helped transform the republic's economy from the Soviet Union's slowest to its fastest growing. Among his innovations: productivity bonuses for agricultural workers who exceeded their quotas. "He is an exciting character, a risk taker," says Simes. "I don't know of any other Politburo member who is both as dynamic and as ruthless."

Gorbachev is expected to follow precedent by naming men in their 50s and 60s to full membership on the Politburo and to other top jobs. What intrigues Kremlinologists is the sort of men, officials in their 40s or younger, he will choose as their replacements. Not until a pattern emerges from these mid- . level promotions--if indeed one does--will the face of tomorrow's Soviet leadership become clearer.

With reporting by David Aikman/Washington and Nancy Traver/ Moscow