Business Notes

Following the oil shocks of the 1970s, one of the consoling notions for Americans was that the country had a seemingly abundant supply of offshore oil and natural gas. A Government study in 1981 portrayed a virtual energy El - Dorado that contained as much as 40% of the country's undiscovered oil and 30% of its natural gas. Now that gusher of optimism has been capped.

Using figures released last week, the Interior Department estimates offshore oil reserves at only 12.2 billion bbl. of crude, or 55% less than earlier predictions, and 90.5 trillion cu. ft. of gas, down 44%. If the study proves accurate, by the 1990s the U.S. may have to increase oil imports to as much as the 1977 peak of about 9 million bbl. a day, vs. 3 million bbl. today.

The new estimates reflect the failure of recent exploration in Alaskan waters and the Atlantic. As a result, oil companies have shown waning interest in searching those once promising areas. "The assumption was that our domestic resources were simply there for the taking," said James Curlin, the Office of Technology Assessment official who directed the new study. "Now we had better start looking at alternatives."