Nicaragua Tantalizing Hints

Nicaragua's Sandinista government may have been trying to send an important signal to someone last week. The question was, to whom, and what did it mean? In carefully worded conversations, some officials in Managua, the capital, let it be known that they were considering the temporary suspension of the country's 15-month-old military draft. The move, coming only a week after imposition of a U.S. trade embargo against Nicaragua, was interpreted by some as a potential peace offering from the Sandinistas to a hostile Reagan Administration. Others preferred to see it as a propaganda ploy, aimed at influencing opinion on Capitol Hill.

Even as Nicaragua dangled the prospect of a change of course, Sandinista soldiers launched a one-day incursion into neighboring Honduras in pursuit of the contra guerrillas. After being repulsed by the contras, the Sandinistas returned to the attack at week's end. At least one Honduran soldier was killed and several others were wounded in the second incursion, leading the Honduran military to declare the border area a "zone of military emergency."

In Washington, the Democratic majority on the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence blocked yet another Administration proposal to provide $28 million of U.S. military assistance in the next fiscal year for the 15,000 contras battling the Managua regime. Efforts by Republican committee members to revive the funding for nonmilitary purposes were also defeated.

The hints of Sandinista military changes came as U.S. Democratic Congressmen were showing signs of regret for their decision three weeks ago to refuse $14 million to the contras this year, even when the money was labeled humanitarian relief. The biggest factor in changing congressional minds was Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega Saavedra's tete-a-tete in Moscow on April 29 with Soviet Leader Mikhail Gorbachev. Ortega continued his 13-day trip through the East bloc last week, meeting, among others, Polish Prime Minister General Wojciech Jaruzelski.

The Sandinistas may have internal reasons for considering a change in the highly unpopular draft law. It has led to widespread draft evasion and even fights between Nicaraguans and Sandinista officials who roam the country looking for recruits. At the same time, the Sandinistas evidently feel that their armed forces, already much larger than those of any neighboring country, are at appropriate strength levels.

The U.S.'s fledgling trade embargo is likely to have little bearing on the outcome of the contra issue. The Sandinistas have already announced a trade offensive in Western Europe and Canada to soften the economic blow, which affects $168 million in U.S.-Nicaraguan commerce. Last week Ortega added a West European tour to his East bloc visit in order to lead that effort.