Britain Thatcher Hits Stormy Weather

By William E. Smith

The sun came out in Britain last week after five gloomy months, but it was not shining on Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher. First there had been local elections in early May in which her Conservatives took a severe drubbing from the Social Democratic/Liberal Alliance. Then came a dark cloud of budding insurrection from within the Tory party, and finally the thunderclap of a new Gallup poll that showed how far the Conservatives have fallen. For the first time since their slump preceding the Falklands war in 1982, the Tories ranked third in a poll, trailing, at 30.5%, behind Labor's 34% and the Alliance's 33.5%.

Perhaps the most surprising development was a whiff of rebellion within the Conservative Party. An informal group calling itself Conservative Center Forward was launched by about 30 moderate Tory M.P.s, with former Foreign Secretary Francis Pym, 63, as its leader. In calling for measures to ease unemployment and bolster industry through greater investment by the government in the public sector, Pym declared, "This Conservative government has been giving round after round of ammunition to its political opponents. It stands in danger of being sunk by its own shells." Though Pym praised the Prime Minister for her "courage and determination" and insisted that the new caucus would not be disloyal to the party and its leadership, his sharp criticism was hardly the view of a Thatcher partisan.

Downing Street's reaction was one of carefully orchestrated scorn. A senior Thatcher aide dismissed Pym as a "rejected" minister making one last effort to achieve the party leadership. As for the C.C.F., said the aide, it is "enormously long on criticism and extremely short on prescriptions, except to spend more money."

But Thatcher supporters could hardly deny that the news, at least for the moment, was uniformly bad. In the county council balloting on May 2, the Conservatives lost almost 200 seats in their worst showing in years. Jobs in the manufacturing sector fell by 11,000 last month, fueling criticism of the government's austerity prescriptions even from a member of Thatcher's Cabinet. Energy Minister Peter Walker, a moderate who is a contender to succeed Thatcher, advocated drastic action to combat the 13.5% unemployment rate. Until recently, Britain's low inflation index had been one of the government's points of pride; last week the rate stood at 6.9%, up from 5.1% a year ago and the highest since 1982.

Bad tidings also flowed from last week's council elections in Northern Ireland. The Irish Republican Army's political wing, Sinn Fein, which advocates terrorist tactics in bringing an end to British rule in the province, contested elections for the first time and made a strong showing by electing 59 of its candidates.

Britain's high unemployment rate is clearly at the root of the Prime Minister's loss of popular support. In the latest Gallup poll, her public "satisfaction rating" dropped from 38% last month to 36%, while Liberal Leader David Steel's rose by 4 points, to 64%. Social Democratic Leader David Owen gained 4 points, to 56%, and Labor Party Head Neil Kinnock improved his rating from 36% to 38%. Thatcher supporters draw some comfort from the fact that she has bounced back before. Besides, the next general elections do not have to take place until June 1988, and most British politicians recognize the wisdom of former Prime Minister Harold Wilson's dictum: "A week is a long time in politics."

With reporting by Bonnie Angelo/London