Levels of Involvement

By John E. Yang

The scorn was clear in Ronald Reagan's voice. "The little dictator who went to Moscow in his green fatigues to receive a bear hug," he said of Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega Saavedra, "did not forsake the doctrine of Lenin when he returned to the West and appeared in a two-piece suit. He made his choice long ago." The President was speaking last week at a fund raiser in Oklahoma City, but his real audience was members of Congress who were once again considering the resumption of aid to the contra rebels struggling against Ortega's Sandinista regime. "It was a dark day for freedom," Reagan scolded, "when, after the Soviet Union spent $500 million to impose Communism in Nicaragua, the U.S. Congress could not support a meager $14 million for the freedom fighters in Nicaragua who were opposed to that totalitarian government."

In Washington two days later, the Republican-controlled Senate agreed, as it had in April, authorizing by a 55-to-42 vote a $38 million package of nonmilitary aid for the contras over the next 16 months. Under the plan, the money would be distributed by the CIA, but none could be spent for arms or munitions; defensive equipment like radar could be provided. Nor could the money be used to fund activities that violate international law or the charter of the Organization of American States, which prohibits "coercion" of countries, unless specifically authorized by U.S. law. The House seems less willing to go along, but some Democrats, embarrassed by Ortega's visit to Moscow in April, may be ready to accept a compromise. This week the House will vote on a $27 million package of humanitarian aid, but the proposal would bar the CIA or Pentagon from distributing the funds. The proposal is being opposed by the top Democratic leadership, and the vote is expected to be close. Charges House Speaker Tip O'Neill: "I'm trying to keep American troops out of Nicaragua."

Democratic fears of U.S. military involvement have been fueled by ominous warnings from Administration officials concerned about the cutoff of contra aid. Secretary of State George Shultz, for example, told the American Bar Association last month that if Congressmen continued to withhold assistance "they are hastening the day when the threat will grow and we will be faced with an agonizing choice about the use of American combat troops." The New York Times printed a pair of articles last week speculating that the Administration was moving closer to the invasion option. "That's foolish," charged White House Spokesman Larry Speakes. "The President has no plans to use U.S. military forces in Central America, period."

Representative Michael Barnes, a Maryland Democrat who has long been critical , of the President's Central American policy, says that intelligence briefings indicate a U.S. invasion of Nicaragua would not be easy. It would take two or three weeks for troops to take the urban centers and several thousand lives would be lost on both sides, Barnes was told. "But then the Sandinistas would control the countryside," he says. From there they could wage a guerrilla war that would require a prolonged military occupation and counterinsurgency campaign. Nicaraguan Defense Minister Humberto Ortega Saavedra was quoted as saying, "This is not going to be like fighting on the plains of Europe in the Second World War." A Rand Corp. study estimates such an operation could require at least 100,000 combat troops.

In Nicaragua, Ortega seized on the increased speculation about invasion plans as proof that his repeated warnings of U.S. intervention were not "something we invented, but rather something that is being discussed and prepared by American strategists." Meanwhile, the Sandinista army continued to press its attacks on contra bases along Nicaragua's borders in some of the most intense fighting of the more than three-year conflict. Government troops drove the rebels from all of their camps along the San Juan River, which forms part of the country's southern border with Costa Rica. Sandinista bombers then pounded guerrilla communications installations and supply centers for five days.

In the past, Sandinista forces usually avoided crossing borders when chasing the rebels, who have been operating from base camps in both Honduras and Costa Rica. But now they seem to have little concern for such formalities. "We are going to keep on destroying the contras," Ortega told workers during a visit to a textile factory Tuesday night, "even though we know that the U.S. will try to take advantage of these confrontations to create greater tensions between us and Honduras and Costa Rica." By crossing the borders in "hot pursuit" of the contras, Nicaraguan soldiers could create a pretext for greater U.S. military involvement in the region.

Already Costa Rica has downgraded diplomatic relations with Nicaragua over recent border incidents. Two of its civil guardsmen were killed in an ambush that it blames on the Nicaraguan army; Managua denies responsibility. In addition, a 40-man Costa Rican patrol that went to retrieve one of the bodies was shelled from Nicaraguan territory, even though Nicaraguan Foreign Minister Miguel d'Escoto had been advised of the operation and had promised no interference.

Both sides in the debate over contra funding use the specter of an invasion to bolster their case. Democrats and other critics warn that any further aid will be one more step down a dark tunnel of U.S. involvement. The Administration warns that withholding such assistance hastens the day when less attractive options will become necessary. The $30 million or so is hardly the issue; the Pentagon spends that amount in less than an hour. What is at stake is a symbol of U.S. commitment to oppose and perhaps topple the Sandinista regime, with starkly differing views on where such a commitment might lead.

With reporting by Ricardo Chavira/San Jose and Barrett Seaman/Washington