Free-for-All

By John Moody

There are no permanent military alliances in Lebanon, where ten years of religious and civil strife have left a variety of Christian and Muslim warlords in a stalemate for power. Late last month when the chiefs of the three most powerful militias signed a Syrian-sponsored peace agreement, it seemed that Lebanon was taking a small step toward ending the carnage that has already cost more than 100,000 lives. Syrian President Hafez Assad warned that he would not allow the peace pact to fail. But even Assad could not have foreseen the vicious warfare that erupted last week, pitting Christian against Christian and spelling an almost certain return to factional war.

At issue were the terms of the treaty signed in Damascus on Dec. 28, which would have granted additional political clout to Lebanon's Muslim majority while curbing the influence of the Christians. Since 1943, when Lebanon won independence from France, an unwritten agreement has required that the President be a Maronite Christian, the Prime Minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of parliament a Shi'ite Muslim. The December accord gave the Muslims greater representation in the executive and the legislative branches. President Amin Gemayel at first praised the plan, but he quickly changed his mind when fellow Christian leaders voiced concern that the pact would end traditional Christian dominance of Lebanese political life. Last Monday, as Gemayel prepared to return to Damascus to share his misgivings with Assad, fighting broke out in Christian-dominated East Beirut between the Lebanese Forces, a Christian militia commanded by Elias Hobeika, 29, who had signed the Damascus pact, and the fighting arm of the Phalange Party, which is loyal to President Gemayel.

Hobeika's army cornered the Phalange units in an area northeast of the capital. Then at dawn Wednesday, Hobeika's chief of staff, Samir Geagea, 32, who opposed the Damascus treaty, threw his tanks and artillery behind Gemayel and launched a counteroffensive against Hobeika. At the end of the day, according to police estimates, 350 people had been killed.

Hobeika's near victory turned into a rout of his own forces. On Thursday he fled to Paris with his wife and son. Geagea, who last March had challenged Gemayel for leadership of the Phalange Party, allied himself with the President against pro-Syrian Muslim fighters.

Furious that its blueprint for peace had been scuttled, Syria allowed its Lebanese supporters to shell Gemayel's hometown of Bikfaya, in the mountains east of Beirut. Tank and artillery clashes between Druze militiamen and Christian forces shook Suq al Jharb, a hill town overlooking the Presidential Palace. In Beirut, meanwhile, there were exchanges of artillery and rocket fire across the line that divides the capital between Muslim and Christian sectors.

While Gemayel temporarily preserved his authority, he had condemned his country to yet another round of blood-letting. Assad is unlikely to abandon his objective of imposing order on Lebanon, although he is reluctant to commit Syrian troops to the battle. One Syrian option would be to starve Lebanon economically by shutting off its seaports. Said the Beirut leftist daily newspaper As Safir, which often reflects Syrian strategy: "[Gemayel] will not be able to rule, and total paralysis will engulf the state." That situation would be acutely painful for Lebanon's long-suffering citizens, especially since they seemed so close to winning a respite from their agony. --By John Moody. Reported by Dean Fischer/Cairo

With reporting by Dean Fischer/Cairo