Portugal Squaring Off for Round 2

By Jay D. Palmer.

For the 13th time since the fall of the right-wing dictatorship in 1974, Portuguese voters last week went to the polls, this time to vote for a new President. When the ballots were counted, however, none of the five candidates had won more than 50%, and so the two top contenders will face a runoff on Feb. 16. The choice is between men of sharply differing political views. One is Diogo Freitas do Amaral, 44, a law professor, a onetime leader of the Christian Democratic Party and now the standard-bearer of his country's right wing. His opponent is Mario Soares, 61, a three-time Socialist Prime Minister and the champion of the left. The outcome of the election is important not only because the victor will become Portugal's first civilian President in 60 years. In a country where there have been 16 governments in the past twelve years, the President has become an influential center of political continuity. The election is taking place against a backdrop of serious economic troubles. One of the poorest nations in Western Europe, Portugal is currently struggling with a 20% inflation rate and an unemployment level of about 11%. Moreover, its economy faces great er challenges in the competitive atmosphere of the European Community, which Portugal entered last month.

In the first round of the election, Freitas do Amaral was the clear victor, winning more than 2.6 million votes, about 46% of the total. Soares, by comparison, collected only 25%, 1.44 million votes. But the first round was not an even fight. While Freitas do Amaral was the only right-wing candidate, the leftist vote was split three ways. In addition to Soares, Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo, who served as Prime Minister for five months in 1979, and Francisco Salgado Zenha, a former Socialist Party member, were also running.

When the campaign opened, Salgado Zenha appeared to be the strongest candidate on the left. He had the backing of the Communist Party, and in the closing days of the campaign was endorsed by General Antonio Ramalho Eanes, the popular outgoing President, and his newly formed Democratic Renewal Party. Salgado Zenha, though, was a lackluster candidate who showed little charisma on TV, now an important factor in Portuguese elections. Too often he came across as sneering and aloof.

Soares was the best known of the leftists, but he was remembered for all the wrong reasons. His governments had introduced harsh austerity programs, and the electorate blamed him for high unemployment and inflation. In early polls he was projected to win just 8% of the vote.

The former Prime Minister, though, ran a savvy campaign, sending musical shows on the campaign trail and surrounding himself with popular national figures, including Olympic Marathon Winner Carlos Lopes. Soares also emphasized his political experience and his achievements, including the country's entry into the E.C. Ultimately, Soares won back support from Socialists who had defected from Salgado Zenha after he won Communist backing. Salgado Zenha ended up with 20.9% of the vote and Maria de Lourdes Pintasilgo got just 7.4%.

The two runoff candidates have very different personalities and backgrounds. Mario Soares is an emotional man of action who reacts immediately to a situation. Diogo Freitas do Amaral is a cool, aloof, analytical person who carefully studies and weighs the merits of each situation before making a decision. The product of a middle-class family of intellectuals, Soares spent most of the 1960s and early '70s either in prison or exile. Freitas do Amaral is from a wealthy family that had close ties to former Dictator Antonio Salazar, although the candidate never held public office during those years.

The presidential election has basically turned into a contest between those who want to maintain the left-wing aims of the 1974 revolution and those who want to return to more conservative political and social policies. Freitas do Amaral says he would like to see some companies denationalized, including breweries and newspapers. Soares claims that his defeat would mean the right's return to political power.

The role of the Communist Party, which controls from 15% to 18% of the vote, could be crucial in the runoff. Soares is a long-standing and bitter foe of the Communists, but last week the party came out in support of him--sort of. Said Party Leader Alvaro Cunhal: "A vote for Mario Soares is not a vote for Mario Soares but a vote against Freitas do Amaral." Cunhal viewed Soares as the lesser of two evils, and Portuguese political commentators quipped that the Communists were "swallowing the toad," a Portuguese expression for doing something necessary but unpleasant. Soares rejected the support of the Communist Party, while announcing his willingness to accept votes from workers who normally vote Communist. "As Communists," he declared, "many workers may dislike me. But I think, as workers, they prefer me to Freitas do Amaral."

The country as a whole may not feel the same way. The first ballot represents the sharpest swing to the right by voters since the 1974 revolution. To win the second round and the presidency, Freitas do Amaral must pick up only 3% more, while Soares must hold his own votes and get most of the 28% that went to his left-wing rivals. Both sides are equally optimistic. Soares promises "a modern Portugal, a European Portugal, a progressive Portugal," while Freitas do Amaral replies, "Mario Soares has nothing new to offer Portugal." Round 2 begins.

With reporting by Martha De La Cal/Lisbon