Michigan's Holy Confusion

By Jacob V. Lamar Jr

In the past, the Rev. Pat Robertson, an immensely popular television evangelist and head of the Christian Broadcasting Network, has said that he was awaiting divine guidance on whether he should run for President. But Robertson's show of strength in an early test in Michigan last week could give the New Right Televangelist a more earthly impetus.

Robertson's appeal was, perhaps, the only clear-cut revelation to emerge from the Rube Goldberg process that Michigan has adopted for picking delegates to the nominating convention that is still more than two years away. Last week 10,110 potential candidates signed up to run in August to become precinct delegates; the winners will eventually select delegates for district meetings, which will then select delegates for a statewide convention, which will choose Michigan's delegates to the national convention early in 1988. Confusing? Yes. But the contest last week was to see who could get the most people to sign up. Vice President George Bush and New York Congressman Jack Kemp made it an early test of strength, but the wild-card performance of Robertson made both of them losers in differing ways.

Because the potential delegates are not yet formally pledged, there was a welter of claims about who had turned out the most loyalists. The Robertson people estimated they garnered some 4,500. Bush claimed about the same number, while the Kemp camp claimed more than 3,700. Though a little arithmetic reveals that somebody is exaggerating, Robertson clearly prevented Bush from establishing himself as an unrivaled front runner and prevented Kemp from making the race a two-person contest. Said James Killeen, clerk of Michigan's Wayne County: "When a person of Robertson's newcomer status is able to best the Vice President of the United States and one of the most prominent Republicans in the House of Representatives, he's hit a home run." In a statement released last week, Robertson called his Michigan candidates "surrogates for the millions of people in America who care about traditional values."

The Vice President's campaign aides argued that a strong Robertson candidacy would actually help protect Bush on his vulnerable right flank by drawing support from conservatives such as Kemp and Nevada Senator Paul Laxalt. But W. Clark Durant III, a Detroit attorney who chairs Kemp's operation in Michigan, maintains that the Vice President was the big loser last week. "While a lot of the numbers may be overstated or double counted or muddled, the message is really very clear," says he. "The Republican grass roots want an alternative to George Bush. Even by his own count, Bush didn't do very well for a front runner." Moreover, Durant contends, when push comes to shove, many of Robertson's followers will throw their support to Kemp. "They say they like Robertson for their minister," says Durant, "but Jack Kemp as their President."

Despite last week's triumph, Robertson will have his work cut out if he decides to run. In a poll of 572 Republicans and independents conducted for TIME by Yankelovich, Clancy, Shulman, Bush comes out with a commanding lead, reflecting his extremely high name recognition. When asked whether their impressions of each candidate were favorable or unfavorable, those surveyed gave high marks to Bush and Senate Majority Leader Robert Dole. Robertson, on the other hand, was the only candidate with an unfavorable rating that was almost as high as his favorable one. Nevertheless, his fervent contingent of loyalists showed they have the potential to shake up the long race ahead.

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With reporting by William J. Mitchell/Detroit