Japan "Voice of the Nation, Voice of God"

By Amy Wilentz

For a while, Japanese Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone had seemed headed for a forced retirement. Both Japanese and international opinion makers predicted that his chances for a third term in office after this month's parliamentary elections were all but nil. After the Tokyo economic summit in May, Nakasone appeared to be in deep trouble, having failed to persuade Japan's major trading partners to cool off the country's overheated currency. Worse, Japan's $ gross national product recently declined by .5%, the first such drop in eleven years. His policies of "administrative reform," aimed at curbing exports, cutting government expenditures and opening up Japan's domestic markets to foreign competition, were met with bureaucratic resistance at home. Nakasone also bucked Japanese public opinion by pumping up real defense spending by 6.5% a year while cutting back on education and welfare.

Thus, the landslide victory of the Prime Minister and his Liberal Democratic Party in last week's "double" parliamentary elections was not only totally unexpected but a devastating shokku for the Japanese opposition. For Nakasone, it seemed nothing short of miraculous, as it thrust behind him, at least for the moment, the worst of his problems. Moreover, the vote set records: the extent of the Liberal Democratic victory was unprecedented in the party's 31 years of continuous rule. The L.D.P. candidates won a majority of 304 out of 512 seats in the lower house of parliament, an increase of more than 50, while the smaller opposition parties suffered setback after setback. In the upper house too the L.D.P. gained eleven seats, giving it a total of 142 in the 252-member chamber.

Elated by the scope of his success, Nakasone let loose with some uncharacteristic hyperbole. He called the final tally "this voice of the nation, this voice of heaven, this voice of God . . ." Still, the victory was only a first step toward Nakasone's goal of extending his leadership for another two years. Now he must begin the tricky task of persuading his sprawling and splintered party to allow him a rare third term as party president, and thus as Japan's leader.

Reaction to the Liberal Democratic landslide was enthusiastic in the West. "A personal victory for Nakasone as well as for his policies," said Gaston Sigur, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. "As a result, Japan can take a more responsible role in the world economic community, commensurate with her strength." The Prime Minister's landslide, said the London Times, was a "sign that Japan is becoming both more outgoing and more accessible." Nakasone, commented the conservative West German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung, "can be sure that the victory of his party and his personal success will be welcomed in the West."

The victory reflected a deepening mood of conservatism among Japanese voters. Though faced with a soaring yen, declining profits and irritable trading partners, voters young and old turned to Nakasone and the Liberal Democrats to protect the status quo. Declared Eishiro Saito, chairman of the Japan Federation of Economic Organizations: "We need political stability most of all, in order to overcome the economic difficulties presented by the appreciation of the yen." To John Yochelson, a Japan expert at Georgetown University's Center for Strategic and International Studies, Nakasone's victory is "as much a reflection of Japanese anxiety as a vote of confidence." Adds he: "The L.D.P. has always done better in times of economic difficulty, when the Japanese electorate has felt it does not have the luxury of experimenting."

Indeed, Japan has lately been plagued with disturbing economic dislocations. After years of steadily increasing investment in industrial plants and equipment, the increase for 1986 has fallen off sharply for the first time. Nissan, Mitsubishi and other Japanese automobile companies are all reporting a serious decline in profits. In the electronics industry, another of Japan's profit leaders, Hitachi Ltd., reported a 38% decrease in profits in May. Unemployment -- almost an unknown in Japan -- is on the rise. By the end of fiscal 1986, the cumulative budget deficit is expected to swell to a staggering $894 billion.

But none of these tribulations have managed to sour the Japanese electorate on the charming and charismatic Nakasone. Wrote Political Commentator Yoshimasa Miyazaki: "Mr. Nakasone amazingly has managed to come out as a winner of the lone fight in which he was under a barrage of criticism from opposition parties and the press." The Prime Minister emerged triumphant in part because he has developed a personal following unique in the postwar Japanese political scene. The public is stirred by the Prime Minister's energetic presence, as he zooms from meeting to meeting at a breathless clip that would test the endurance of many younger politicians.

His strong international image, rare in a Japanese politician, and his ability to move among Western leaders as an equal gratify the national pride of the Japanese. They are especially pleased and amused when Western observers call the relaxed and humorous meetings between Ronald Reagan and Nakasone the "Ron and Yasu Show." On the other hand, the Prime Minister's steadfast dedication to the values of the East -- for example, his daily Zen meditation and determined nationalism -- also win him considerable respect.

Nakasone managed the election with characteristic political bravura. Although he promised not to dissolve Japan's parliament, or Diet, when he called it into special session in June, he did precisely that. Opposition forces branded him a "liar," but the subterfuge worked. Nakasone profited from his overall popularity rating, which has reached as high as 59.2%. He skillfully engineered last week's double election in parliament, taking advantage of scheduled voting in the upper house and calling a snap election in the lower house.

The L.D.P. candidates then hit the campaign trail with a vengeance. Like other Liberal Democratic leaders, the 68-year-old Prime Minister vigorously sought out Japanese voters from the northernmost island of Hokkaido to the southernmost archipelago of Okinawa. Outflanked and unprepared for the L.D.P. onslaught, the opposition got off to a slow start and never recovered. The Socialists, long the ruling party's most serious adversary, lost 25 seats in the lower house, bringing their total down to 86. The moderate Democratic Socialists did not fare much better, dropping sharply, from 37 seats to 26. The centrist, Buddhist-oriented Clean Government Party did slightly better, losing only two of its 59 seats. Commented Tokyo Political Analyst Takayoshi Miyagawa: "It is more accurate to say that the opposition parties were badly beat up rather than that the L.D.P. won."

Nakasone's long-term strategy may mean that the Japanese economy is in for more rough times before the kinks work themselves out. In campaign speeches the Prime Minister promised to "make it possible for Japan to get set for the upcoming 21st century" by making good relations with his trading partners his No. 1 foreign policy goal. He has acknowledged that Japan's $61.6 billion trade surplus has sparked a worldwide protectionist outcry. He has said repeatedly that the Japanese must try to open Japan's normally inaccessible markets to world goods, though real progress has been slow. "Making Japan more open to the rest of the international community," says a government- commissioned blueprint for economic reform, "is in Japan's own national interest."

To achieve his political aims, Nakasone must contend with his adversaries within the L.D.P. In his quest for a third term, the Prime Minister will have to persuade the other factions to allow him to change the tosoku, or party rules, which currently state that the leader of the L.D.P. must move on after two terms as party president. Since the head of the majority party is also Japan's Prime Minister, this regulation would force Nakasone out of both positions when his term as party president runs out at the end of October. When asked whether he plans to seek a third term, Nakasone hedges judiciously: "I have to abide by tosoku." The rules, however, often have been revised for political reasons. Noted L.D.P. Spokesman Takashi Sato: "Tosoku are something that could be changed easily. They are not like the constitution of the nation."

Among the six L.D.P. factions, several ambitious party leaders would no doubt like to replace Nakasone as Japan's Prime Minister. One of the top three contenders: Finance Minister Noboru Takeshita, 62, who belongs to the large faction of ailing former Prime Minister Kakuei Tanaka. Though Tanaka was convicted in 1983 on charges of accepting a $1.6 million bribe from Lockheed in 1977, his faction remains very powerful.

After last week's big win, Liberal Democratic factions huddled in round- the-clock meetings to begin preparing for the annual party convention in the fall. Takeshita, along with Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe, 62, and L.D.P. Executive Board Chairman Kiichi Miyazawa, 66 -- both prominent leaders of rival L.D.P. factions -- said that they would go along in principle with a brief extension of Nakasone's reign as party president, but objected to giving him a full, two-year third term. Confronted by the Prime Minister's impressive mandate at the polls, however, they may waver. Nakasone is a talented coalition builder, and he now has the undivided support of Japan's Western allies. By the fall, when the L.D.P. meets to plot its future, the Prime Minister could overcome the dwindling forces of his adversaries.

With reporting by S. Chang and Edwin M. Reingold/Tokyo