Michigan's Muddle

George Bush's supporters claimed 52% of the delegates. No, said Pat Robertson: his staff figured he took 40% to 45%. Both wrong, according to an analysis by the Wall Street Journal and NBC News: "uncommitted" bagged 52%. A strategist for Congressman Jack Kemp gave no numbers but insisted that "Michigan is still up for grabs."

So who really won the first round of Michigan's confused Republican delegate-selection process last Tuesday? Well, Bush certainly came out on top, though hardly in a way that solidifies his status as clear front runner. And ! Robertson did well enough to establish himself as a real factor, though not a credible contender for the nomination. Kemp seems to have done about as well as Robertson, but that may have made him the big loser. In fact the real winners may have been those who did not run, such as Robert Dole, Paul Laxalt and Howard Baker.

Tuesday's balloting was little more than a symbolic test: none of the delegates chosen are officially committed to anyone yet. The 9,000 or so selected from Michigan precincts Tuesday will meet in county conventions in early 1988 to choose delegates to a state convention that will finally name 77 delegates to the presidential nominating convention.

Inevitably, with 10,000 candidates on the ballot, many more running as write-ins, and no firm indication of which belonged in whose camp, the presidential contenders as well as the voters grew confused. In some cases Bush and Kemp mailings touted the same candidates. For that matter, many of the delegates have not made up their own minds even unofficially. Says Detroit Attorney Gerald Rosen: "I've talked with so many delegates who have said, 'I'm for Robertson and Kemp' or 'I'm for Bush and Dole.' "

Bush was the first choice of 40% of the voters who expressed a preference in exit polls; his estimate that he emerged with about 50% of the delegates seems plausible. But to achieve those results the Vice President had to send in top operatives and spend $700,000. Robertson, who claims to have spent only $65,000, was the only contender given an unfavorable rating in the exit polls; but the Wall Street Journal/NBC News tally gave him about as many delegates as Kemp, around 10%. Kemp spent $250,000 trying to establish himself as the prime challenger to Bush and signally failed to do so. Dole, by sitting out Michigan and concentrating on showing his mastery as Senate majority leader, has begun to emerge as Bush's most formidable opponent.

Michigan Republicans last week also selected a candidate for Governor: William Lucas, who is black, Roman Catholic and a former policeman and FBI agent. While still a Democrat, Lucas was elected sheriff and then, in 1982, executive of populous (2.2 million) Wayne County, which includes Detroit. He switched parties 15 months ago.

Lucas is the second black to win a major party's gubernatorial nomination; Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, a Democrat, lost in California four years ago, but is trying again this year. (The nation's only black Governor: Pinckney % Pinchback, who was Lieutenant Governor of Louisiana and served for a month when the incumbent was impeached in 1872.) Lucas, an outspoken and articulate conservative, will face a tough race this November against Democratic Governor James Blanchard.