The Philippines Timely Gesture of Support

By Jennifer B. Hull.

For weeks Manila has been rife with speculation over where armed forces Chief of Staff Fidel Ramos would stand in the event of a showdown between President Corazon Aquino and her restive Defense Minister, Juan Ponce Enrile. While most observers have put the general in Aquino's camp, his support of some of Enrile's positions has made him difficult to read. Last week, confronted by reports that members of the military were planning a coup, Ramos sternly warned "military adventurists" that such action could be "bloody and destabilizing." Declared the general, in his clearest show of support yet for Aquino's fragile government: "It's vital that we safeguard and enhance the gains of the February revolution."

Ramos' no-nonsense message came as Aquino prepared for a four-day trip to Japan this week. The President seemed unfazed by the coup rumors -- and Enrile's persistent opposition. Ignoring his calls for immediate presidential elections, she set Feb. 2 as the date for a plebiscite on a new charter that would grant her a full six-year term in office. She announced that legislative elections would be held next May 11. At midweek government negotiators reopened talks with Communist rebels, an Aquino initiative that Enrile has sharply criticized. Only one day earlier, Archbishop Jaime Cardinal Sin of Manila had publicly endorsed Aquino's peace feelers. Said he: "Our faith will tell us to give peace a chance."

Along with Enrile, Ramos spearheaded the weekend rebellion that toppled former President Ferdinand Marcos last February. He took action after the Philippine newspaper Business Day quoted "high-level" military sources as saying that disaffected military men planned an operation, code-named "God Save the Queen," to purge the Aquino government of "left-leaning elements" while retaining Aquino as President. The coup was to take place before the Feb. 2 referendum.

Spokesmen for Enrile, who kept a low public profile last week, denied knowledge of any plot against the government. In fact the Defense Minister's supporters argued that in a crisis the general would have to follow the sentiments of his officers, who they believe support Enrile. "Ramos is loyal to his commander in chief -- and that should be interpreted to mean whoever that may be," said a Defense Ministry aide. Aquino, who met briefly with Enrile at week's end, brushed aside the prospects of a coup, though she put the military on full alert. "I'm confident that there will not be a coup," she said.

Still, Ramos' support for Aquino's policies is hedged with qualifications. He shares Enrile's skepticism about the government's conciliatory approach toward the guerrillas of the Communist New People's Army. Indeed, as preliminary negotiations with the rebels ended last week, the prospects for reduced hostilities remained clouded. While the two sides agreed on safety and immunity guarantees that would operate during a limited cease-fire, proposed two weeks ago by the insurgents, they disagreed sharply over the duration of the truce. "The rebel proposal and that of the military are worlds apart," said a Philippines armed forces strategist.

In spite of Ramos' timely gesture, Aquino's headaches are not over. At week's end a bomb exploded in a suburban Manila theater, injuring 18 people; it was the sixth such attack in the capital area in less than a month. Police blamed the attack on N.P.A. guerrillas. As President Aquino struggles to put her country on a firmer political footing, unequivocal support from her armed forces chief may well prove critical.

With reporting by Nelly Sindayen/Manila