El Salvador Up Against Hard Realities

By Wayne Svoboda

Two years ago El Salvador seemed to be at the threshold of an era of peace and progress. Jose Napoleon Duarte had just been sworn in as the country's first freely elected civilian President in more than half a century, and his platform promised an end to a bloody civil war that was then nearly five years old. The new President boldly proposed peace talks with the Marxist rebels, then met their leaders at a church in La Palma, a town in guerrilla-held territory. Buoyed by generous aid from the U.S., Duarte vowed to revitalize the country's moribund economy. Today, however, an end to both the simmering war and the deepening economic crisis seems a distant possibility.

The President has come up against some hard realities. The war between the government and the Marxist-led Farabundo Marti National Liberation Front (F.M.L.N.) has taken more than 60,000 lives and dragged to a stalemate. Salvadoran soldiers have improved, thanks to U.S. training, but they are unable to defeat the guerrillas. When Duarte struck a deal with the rebels for the release of his kidnaped daughter in October 1985, his relations with some top officers suffered. Last October an earthquake devastated much of San Salvador, inflicting more than $1 billion in damages and compounding the country's economic woes.

The President's lifeline, U.S. aid, may not be as strong as it once was. Since 1979, when the Marxist-oriented Sandinistas took power in Nicaragua, the U.S. has sent more than $1.5 billion in economic aid to El Salvador. The Reagan Administration has sent an additional $500 million for military use, while hailing Duarte as a bulwark against the spread of Communism in the region. Nonetheless, Secretary of State George Shultz, during a recent visit to San Salvador, acknowledged that American aid has limits.

Last January, under pressure from Washington, Duarte announced a plan to strengthen the economy and reduce dependence on U.S. largesse. He devalued the Salvadoran colon by 50%, which led to consumer price increases, and imposed a tax on coffee, the country's main export, to pay for the war. With an average per capita income of $535, El Salvador now faces as much as 50% unemployment, up to 40% inflation and a flight of capital as wary businessmen invest overseas. To make matters worse, half a million people have been forced from their homes by the war. The earthquake, which killed as many as 1,500 people, left more than 100,000 homeless and damaged 70% of all government buildings in the capital, slowing official business. Says Communications Minister Julio Adolfo Rey Prendes: "We will probably need $2 billion to get back to where we were."

Finding that money will be difficult. After the quake, El Salvador received $52 million in aid from the U.S. ($350 million more has been recommended by the U.S. embassy) and was promised $130 million from Italy and $50 million from West Germany. Many other countries and private agencies chipped in immediately, but the costs of full reconstruction dwarf their contributions.

Negotiations between the government and the F.M.L.N. have made little progress. In June, Duarte invited rebel leaders to meet with him. The meeting, set for Sept. 19 in the village of Sesori, fell through when Duarte refused a rebel demand to withdraw the army from the area. Some observers said the army had moved into positions near Sesori to show it was a force that not only the rebels but also Duarte must contend with. Today there is serious fighting in half the country's 14 departments.

Although newly disciplined and well-equipped government troops have put the guerrillas on the defensive, the army has been unable to force them from their sanctuaries. Rebel strength is down to half the 1981 figure of 10,000. The F.M.L.N. is waging a war of attrition, relying on land mines to cripple the security forces. The mines currently account for more than half the army's average of 250 casualties a month. Rebel attacks on bridges and roads continue. Last week guerrillas dynamited nine electric pylons, causing a 24- hour blackout that affected nearly one-fifth of the country's 5 million people.

Duarte is still viewed with suspicion by some within the military. Besides those officers upset by his peace initiatives, a handful of others resent his successful effort to reduce the number of assassinations carried out by right- wing death squads, some of which are part of the military's intelligence service. Duarte has reason to mistrust the military. Several officers have been implicated in kidnapings of wealthy Salvadorans, crimes that were blamed on the guerrillas. One is under house arrest, but another, Lieut. Colonel Roberto Mauricio Staben, still holds an important field command.

Duarte and a democratic El Salvador may find it difficult to last without substantial doses of continued American economic and military support. The U.S. has a high stake in Duarte's survival but seems uncertain precisely how best to strengthen his hand, apart from providing massive aid indefinitely. Says a Salvadoran banker: "The poor are a lot less afraid of Communism than the wealthy, and it is the poor who are suffering." U.S. policymakers are mindful of that assessment. To counter the implicit threat, Duarte, whose government is reportedly plagued by low-level official corruption, must not only obtain additional money and political support abroad, but also somehow revive the stalled peace talks to regain public confidence. Even those steps may not be enough. A genuinely brave man who most believe represents the best hope for democracy in El Salvador, Duarte may still be up to the task. But the promise of two years ago is steadily fading.

With reporting by John Borrell/San Salvador and Ricardo Chavira/Washington