Rushing to An Early Kickoff

By Laurence I. Barrett

Dubuque's annual small-college basketball tournament is drawing some far-flung spectators this year. Delaware Senator Joe Biden and former Arizona Governor Bruce Babbitt, who have more on their mind than hoopsters, decided it was the place to be on Sunday. Others are likewise discovering the joys of Iowa in January. New York Congressman Jack Kemp was there twice last week, and former Delaware Governor Pete du Pont is going there this week to tell farmers how he plans to phase out commodity price supports, then heading to New Hampshire for his fifth visit in five months.

To most Americans, trucking desiccated Christmas trees to the dump marks the slow beginning of a new year. But for the class of 1988, it is only 13 months before voters in Iowa begin to choose convention delegates, and 1987 seems all too short. While Washington wonders whether Ronald Reagan can recover from Iranscam, those who hope to succeed him are organizing for what promises to be the least predictable, most wide-open campaign in at least a generation.

Delegate selection will take place even earlier than usual. Twelve Southern and Border states, trying to increase their influence on the parties, will hold primaries on March 8 of next year. This has led some other states to move up their dates as well. By March 15 nearly half the delegates will probably have been chosen. No one knows whether this front-loaded calendar will make for early decisions or whether the large fields will fragment the results until later in the game. The presence of two Baptist ministers -- Jesse Jackson on the Democratic left and Pat Robertson on the Republican right -- also casts conventional scenarios in doubt. But one thing is certain: more candidates are out campaigning earlier than ever in the belief that late starters are likely to be left in the dust.

To mount a serious campaign next winter, a candidate must raise more than $3 million this year. Already potential contributors are scouting the field; in Phoenix this weekend, 36 Democratic donors who have formed a group called Impac '88 met to discuss uniting behind one candidate early on. Meanwhile, skeletal campaign organizations were adding expert meat to their bones. Babbitt last week became the first Democrat to form a full-fledged campaign committee. In the past fortnight senior strategists also took posts in the campaigns of Kemp, Du Pont, Gary Hart and Richard Gephardt.

Mechanical preparations aside, the dynamics of 1988 promise drastic differences from the past four elections. For the first time since 1968, no incumbent is running. For the first time in memory -- since 1952, at least -- the race in both parties is completely open. Neither party boasts a dominant potential leader with a solid lead at this stage.

Robert Strauss, once Democratic chairman and now Washington's senior soothsayer, argues, "The confluence of these political circumstances opens the nominating process wide in both parties." Pollster Peter Hart carries that idea further, predicting that those running well behind in today's opinion surveys will have the best chance to win the nomination. "Some of the candidates little known today will fulfill what voters will be looking for," he says. "Voters will prefer a fresh start to continuation of the stable present."

A candidate's ability to come across as a strong, trustworthy leader will remain a pivotal factor in both the primaries and the general election. But this time out, if voters look carefully, they will find a richer debate than usual amid the inevitable glitz and hokum. None of the candidates has a large enough base of support to run on his established image or political IOUs. Both major parties must try to draw a credible road map for the 1990s. Democrats, while decrying the failures of Reaganomics -- huge trade and budget deficits, decline of basic industries and family farms, unmet needs of the underclass -- must propose specific, affordable remedies. Republicans, while crowing about Reagan's accomplishments -- inflation stunned, interest rates slashed, sustained economic growth since the recession of '82 -- must explain how they will do still better.

Among Republicans, George Bush has the on-the-job training necessary to get high grades on any issue examination, foreign or domestic. Yet even before Iranscam, he was a limping front runner, living evidence of why no sitting Vice President has won the White House since Martin Van Buren was elected in 1836. It is difficult for a loyal Vice President, and Bush has certainly been that, to establish independent credentials. While many Republicans like Bush well enough, some of the most conservative activists doubt his commitment to their pet issues, such as abortion and school prayer. They remember that he meant it during the 1980 primaries when he called Reagan's fiscal program "voodoo economics." Bush turned out to be correct, but to say "I told you so" now would be fatal.

The Vice President is the best known of the Republicans, and he owns a solid organization. Although a TIME poll taken last week shows that he has slipped 11points since last May, he is still the first choice of 40% of Republicans and independents surveyed, twice the figure for Kansas Senator Robert Dole. Sometime in mid-spring, Bush will begin a series of major speeches, says an aide, in which he will "lay out his ideas for the future."

Dole gains from Bush's weakness and is now solidly in second place among Republicans. Though he has run afoul of supply-side purists because he pragmatically worries about the budget deficit, he has placated the right wing on most other issues while retaining the confidence of the G.O.P. establishment. He projects an aura of gritty competence, an increasingly valued attribute as the drawbacks of Reagan's befuddled detachment become more apparent. Even one of Kemp's backers, Fund Raiser Richard Viguerie, concedes, "Dole is a take-charge person, out there with his oar in the water, trying to do things."

Yet, like Bush, Dole still lacks a hard core of committed support. If his predecessor as Senate Republican leader, Howard Baker, enters the race, he could dilute Dole's backing in both New Hampshire and the South. Successful legislative leaders often flop as national candidates because they deal with trees rather than forests. Says onetime Reagan Campaign Manager John Sears, now an informal Dole adviser: "What he needs to do is to show that he has some vision, that he is not just a product of Congress."

Kemp has the opposite problem. Though known as a purveyor of large ideas -- he sold Reaganomics to Reagan seven years ago, was an early advocate of tax reform and has practical schemes for redevelopment in ghettos -- he failed during his active campaigning last year to establish himself as a credible leader. He sometimes jokes about being called the Hubert Humphrey of the right, a carbonated enthusiast bubbling with optimism and energy. Another problem is the Robertson candidacy, which threatens to drain support from Kemp's main reservoir: voters who believe Reaganism should be carried several steps further. Still, Kemp has the capacity to appeal to young voters with his recipes for economic growth and to blue-collar families with his populist rhetoric.

Du Pont, given his family background and Ivy League education, will never pass for a populist, but his Reaganesque ideas belie his moderate persona. He was the first to announce his candidacy officially, and since September has been challenging the competition to think big. All Republicans, he says, should take "the pledge" against any increase in taxes. He wants to revolutionize the Social Security system by establishing a voluntary, alternative investment scheme aimed primarily at younger workers.

Paul Laxalt, the retiring Nevada Senator and Reagan soul mate who flirted with the idea of offering himself as heir to the legacy, has pulled back. But other dark horses are stalking the Republican paddock. Patrick Buchanan, the White House communications director, has been making a lot of noise, though doing little that is concrete, about a potential bid. Making far less noise but earnestly searching for supporters are former Secretary of State Al Haig and former Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld. None merits more than an asterisk in the polls.

Among Democrats, the most prolific pinwheel of ideas is Colorado's Hart. His strong bid for the nomination in 1984 has given Hart a lead in polls that rests heavily on name recognition. He also enjoys organizational support in key states. To build on those assets, Hart has methodically delivered elaborate speeches, position papers and a new book on military reform. Under the rubric of "true patriotism," he has called for a system of voluntary national service. He proposes a "strategic investment initiative" to bolster education and basic research and a trade plan that is more comprehensive than the Administration's and less protectionist than that of House Democrats. While the tone of Hart's "message candidacy" is intended to evoke New Frontier idealism, his critics argue that he has proved unable to arouse enthusiasm. His answer: "You lead by inspiring people, but you have to inspire their minds as well as their emotions."

New York Governor Mario Cuomo continues to be Delphic about whether he will run. Because he already has some national visibility and the capacity to raise big money, says Consultant David Garth, "Cuomo is the one guy who can lie in the weeds for a while." Most political junkies bet that Cuomo will emerge running. He has accepted speaking engagements in five states, including Iowa, and his itinerary will grow. A moving orator, he has a visceral appeal to party spear carriers with his vision of America as a large family, and can point to four successful years in Albany. Yet his national message is still undefined, and his vague image as a New York liberal does not sit well in the West and South. Should Cuomo not run, or hesitate too long, Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis, who has a similar respected record and vision of the Democratic future, will probably heed his advisers and enter the fray.

In the courtship of blue-collar voters, Cuomo would have strong stylistic competition from Biden, a fellow Catholic and oldfashioned orator who nonetheless styles himself a "post-1984 Democrat." Though he insists that he has not made a final decision to run, the new Senate Judiciary chairman has assembled highcaliber advisers and made the ritual visits to Iowa and New Hampshire. He preaches that the next President must lead the country through seminal changes, but Biden is still honing his basic "wings of eagles" speech into specific positions.

Two Democrats who suffer neither doubts nor a lack of position papers are fully engaged in the battle. Babbitt has ridden a bike around Iowa and climbed mountains in New Hampshire with the same energy he has displayed in courting donors. Missouri Congressman Gephardt has worked just as hard (18 visits to Iowa, the current record) and enjoys wide backing among House Democrats. Both were founding members of the Democratic Leadership Council, a group of centrist elected officials. They emphasize the need for hard decisions to overcome the trade and budget deficits. Both approach issues more intellectually than viscerally. Babbitt, balancing his lunch on his knee, can explain between bites of his sandwich and sips of his diet soda how he would hammer U.S. trading partners into an agreement for "multilateral balance." Gephardt trenchantly describes the Democrats' need to be perceived once again as "the party of national purpose," rather than as a collection of special interests. But those special interests, which weigh heavily in nominating politics, are unlikely to respond to candidates who are perceived as cool technocrats rather than warm Santas.

Two other founders of the D.L.C., Georgia Senator Sam Nunn and former Virginia Governor Charles Robb, are politely touting each other. With his solid grasp of military and foreign affairs, the well-regarded Nunn has increasingly been mentioned by party moderates as an ideal counter-point to Reagan. Nunn says that he will make up his mind in the next month or so. If he decides not to run, Robb may take the plunge in his stead.

Either would be helped by the new dominance of Southern states early in the game. But as is true of other mainstream moderates in both parties, the complex caucus and primary system is somewhat stacked against them. Activists devoted to one or two issues can mobilize a small but loyal cadre likely to show up at the polls, while voters with less ideological fervor stay at home. Says Alvin From, executive director of the D.L.C.: "We're now getting into the period when the litmus testers traditionally have their say. We have tofind a way to keep the common purpose paramount." If the parties can do that,1988 will be not only the most interesting election in recent history but also the most edifying.

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CREDIT:TIME Charts by Renee Klein

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DESCRIPTION: Color illustration: Scoreboard of Republican and Democratic Candidates with percentage of support for each. Cartoon of football players with photographs of candidates' faces superimposed surrounds.