The Wall Comes Tumbling Down

By Philip Elmer-DeWitt

Anyone buying a personal computer for business use over the past few years has been faced with two basic choices: 1) an Apple Macintosh, with its distinctive mouse, fancy graphics and window-shade menu bars; and 2) an IBM or an "IBM-compatible" PC, a clonelike computer that is manufactured by another company but runs software written for Big Blue machines. Either way, the purchaser has had to sacrifice something. Apple owners have been unable to make use of the voluminous library of IBM software, the industry standard. And IBM owners could enjoy Apple's advanced features only by making extensive modifications that slowed their machines to a crawl.

Now the wall separating these two families of personal-computer systems is crumbling. Neither Apple nor IBM will comment, but industry experts are already describing, in considerable detail, new IBM computers that have Apple- like features, and Apple machines that have been redesigned to accept software written for IBM machines as well as the maker's own.

Apple, buoyed by an extraordinarily profitable 1986, appears to have two computers in the works, both slated for introduction in early March. The first, called the Macintosh SE (for System Enhancement), resembles the current Mac Plus but will sport a new mouse, a new keyboard and a mechanism for attaching display monitors bigger than the Mac's built-in 9-in.-diagonal screen. The second computer, called the Macintosh II, is a larger, boxier unit that can be opened up and customized with a variety of plug-in devices. One of these plug-ins, Apple President John Sculley has promised, will do what Co- Founder Steven Jobs vowed the Mac would never do: emulate the workings of an IBM PC.

IBM is planning to replace some of its current PCs with three new models, all of which incorporate such Mac-like features and options as mouse control, flashy graphics and the 3 1/2-in. floppy disks pioneered by Apple (the current IBM and industry standard is a 5 1/4-in. disk). But the computer giant has more on its mind than simply emulating Apple. It must also fend off the clonemakers -- led by Compaq, Leading Edge and Epson. These companies, according to InfoCorp, a market-research firm, have reduced IBM's share of the PC market from 29% to 22% in the past year, contributing to the company's earnings decline. (IBM announced last week that its fourth-quarter earnings were down 48% from 1985.) By adding unique, hard-to-duplicate features to the current IBM standard, Big Blue is moving aggressively to frustrate the copycats and re-establish dominance in the market it helped create.

What does it all mean for the user? "Confusion," says Washington-based Analyst Ulric Weil. Purchasers of the new Apples will have access to a rich lode of IBM-type software, but they will also face the inevitable glitches that come from mixing and matching parts and programs supplied by different manufacturers. Current IBM owners will have to decide whether to buy the new models and follow Big Blue down a new path, or to stick with the traditional IBMs and compatibles. IBM, in making its machines less open to imitators and less compatible with existing models, may be taking the greater risks. "Sure, they could close the box," says John McCarthy, chief analyst with Forrester Research in Cambridge, Mass. "But if they don't add value, nobody will buy it."