Congress

By Richard Stengel

The contras have always had to fight a war on two fronts: at home, against the Soviet-supplied guns of the Sandinistas, and in Washington, against the doubts and fears of U.S. legislators. To some extent they have been caught in a Catch-22. Their failure to win military victories and popular support in Nicaragua has resulted in fitful and inconsistent support from Congress. That has made it difficult for the contras to do more than irritate the Sandinistas. Now, just as the contras seem ready to galvanize their military efforts with a new supply of direct U.S. aid, they find themselves caught in the undertow of Iranscam, with their support in Washington again ebbing away.

Last week the House voted, 230 to 196, to place a six-month moratorium on aid to the contras, until there is a full accounting by the Administration of money, both public and private, generated on behalf of the rebels, including $27 million in humanitarian aid sent in 1985. The measure, which would withhold the $40 million remaining of the $100 million appropriated last year, was an artful ploy linking opposition to the contras with congressional disgust over the Tower commission's revelations about the Administration's inept and probably illegal efforts on behalf of the contras. "Before we send another dime to the contras," said the bill's chief sponsor, Democrat David Bonior of Michigan, "we must know where the previous funds have gone."

The House vote was largely symbolic. Democratic leaders concede that even if the Senate goes along with the plan, there are not enough votes in either chamber to override the inevitable presidential veto. But the vote signals that Congress is in no mood to approve an additional $105 million in aid, which the Administration is planning to request in the fall. Says House Speaker Jim Wright: "This exercise is very useful in awakening the Administration to the reality that it has to begin to focus on other ways to serve our interests in Central America."

Support for the House bill was spurred by the resignation of Arturo Cruz from the triumvirate that heads the United Nicaraguan Opposition, the contras' political arm. Cruz, a onetime Sandinista who has been a consistent advocate of democratic reforms within the rebel movement, never had much power, but his presence was a symbol that the contras were more than just a collection of embittered former supporters of deposed Dictator Anastasio Somoza Debayle. Cruz's absence creates greater doubts about the caliber of the contra leadership. Elliott Abrams, the State Department's point man on the contra issue, disagrees. "The reform process," he argues, "will go on with or without Arturo Cruz."

Future funding for the contras is likely to depend on their doing something they have never yet managed to do: pose a genuine threat to the Sandinistas, showing once and for all that they are not merely a band on the run. The Administration insists it is optimistic. "We think there are things that can happen between now and the summertime that would be a good influence on receiving the money in September," said White House Spokesman Marlin Fitzwater. Noted Abrams: "By September there will be in excess of 15,000 men inside Nicaragua fighting hard, and I don't think it's going to be so easy for the Democrats to say, 'Let's abandon them.' "

During the five months since renewed direct U.S. aid has been flowing, the contras have shaped up and become more formidable. Thousands of tons of U.S. equipment, from boots to grenade launchers, have arrived at air bases at Aguacate and Swan Island, off the Honduran coast. Each contra is now dressed in an olive-green uniform and carries a Soviet-made AK-47 assault rifle, a waterproof poncho, an extra pair of socks and 400 rounds of ammunition.

In the past few months as many as 7,000 men have been trained and sent in small groups -- about 20 rebels each -- from Honduras into Nicaragua. This is a new stage in the conflict: instead of camping out in big, vulnerable bases on the border, they are using small bands to harass the Sandinistas with hit-and-run attacks.

The contras have attacked targets ranging from government cooperative farms to rural stores and power pylons. But as in the past, they have hurt their cause by failing to distinguish between civilian and military targets. There were recent reports of contras burning down a small community's church- sponsored health clinic. Notes a State Department official: "As the degree of fighting increases, the number of human-rights-violations stories increases too." The contras inside Nicaragua are being supplied by clandestine airdrops, a dangerous technique. But if the resupply holds up and the money continues to flow, the contras are expected to step up their attacks by the summer and move into the strategically important Pacific coastal plain.

The question is whether, with another few months and another $40 million, the contras will be able to carry out the kind of military moves necessary to keep the support of a restless U.S. Even with consistent funding, predicts General John Galvin, head of the U.S. Southern Command, it will take at least several years for the contras to overthrow the Sandinistas.

The American public, which has never really been in the contras' corner, has no appetite for such an extended commitment. A poll taken for TIME last month by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman found that 52% of 1,014 adults questioned favor cutting off all military support to the contras, vs. 26% who favor additional military aid and 22% not sure. The public is pessimistic about the course of events in Nicaragua: 62% believe it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that U.S. troops will end up fighting there.

Short of U.S. military intervention, the only alternative to supporting a guerrilla action is to bolster the diplomatic efforts that were part of the contra policy. Moderates in Congress claim the Administration has done little to advance the negotiations. Democratic Congressman Dave McCurdy of Oklahoma, a past supporter of contra aid, voted for the moratorium because of what he described as "ineptitude" on the diplomatic front. "There has been a complete undermining" of the negotiating process, he says. "What they've done is harden people like me who could have been friendly."

The Senate, which is scheduled to consider a measure similar to the House moratorium this week, displayed its own exasperation with the lack of diplomatic efforts. By 97 to 1, it endorsed the thrust of a Central American peace plan proposed last month by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias Sanchez. The plan calls for an end to support for insurgent movements in Central America, a cease-fire in Nicaragua, and a discussion among its political groups on open elections and guaranteed civil rights. House Democrats released a 2 1/2-page "Alternative U.S. Policy," which endorsed Arias' initiatives and called for a cease-fire in Nicaragua, a reduction of the Soviet military presence in the region, and resettlement of the contras, as well as assistance to refugees displaced by the rebels.

The Democrats have been unable to show that negotiations can succeed & without the pressure exerted by the contras. And the Reagan Administration has been unable to offer any assurance that the contras will ultimately succeed. The current round of skirmishes in Washington is unlikely to prove conclusive, but it shows that time is running out on the half-baked approaches of the past.

With reporting by Michael Duffy and Barrett Seaman/Washington