The Philippines

By William Stewart/Manila

One great hope of Corazon Aquino's ascension to power was that the Communist insurgents might heed her plea to disarm and join in the rebuilding of Philippine society. That hope got a lift when the Communist New People's Army agreed last December to a 60-day cease-fire, a first for the 18-year-old rebel insurgency. But the truce broke down last month amid bitter charges and countercharges. The Ministry of Defense estimates that at least 350 people have died since the fighting resumed. The violence often plays out in a lethal tit for tat. Last week, after government troops killed 13 guerrillas on the island of Mindanao, the rebels ambushed and killed 37 soldiers in two separate attacks. Meanwhile, a bomb ripped through the grandstand at the Philippine Military Academy in the resort town of Baguio. Since President Aquino was scheduled to attend a graduation ceremony there several days later, speculation abounded that she was the target. Though the N.P.A. denied responsibility, government officials suspected the Communists, disgruntled military officers or Marcos loyalists. At week's end, investigators were questioning four military men.

The resumption of fighting comes at an awkward time for the Aquino government. The Philippines is preparing for May 11 congressional elections, the first legislative balloting since Aquino took office last year during the popular revolt that toppled former President Ferdinand Marcos. Aquino has tried to regain the initiative for a truce by making a number of almost desperate attempts to get the Communists back to the bargaining table. The President has offered to conclude regional cease-fires and proclaimed a "full and complete amnesty" to rebels who lay down their arms in the next six months.

Her offers have been spurned by the National Democratic Front, the Communist-dominated alliance that bargains on behalf of the insurgents. The peace bids, scoffs N.D.F. Negotiator Antonio Zumel, are part of the Aquino administration's "soft tactics to countervail its naked sword of war. It is a sheer farce." Says Vicvic Justiniani, the national spokeswoman for MAKIBAKA, a women's organization that is part of the N.D.F.: "Our view of what constitutes peace is not the same as Cory's. Peace can only come with social justice. So it is a question of whose ideas prevail, ours or hers."

Justiniani's political evolution is typical of how the Communist movement has spread through Philippine society. The daughter of a rich landowner on the island of Negros, a Communist stronghold, she joined the rebels in 1973, when she was 17. Deceptively gentle in appearance, Justiniani was at first stirred by the nationalist opposition to the Marcos government's pro-American policies. Now a rigorous Marxism sustains her. After spending years in the jungle, she claims, "I know the peasants and what they feel. I have witnessed their suffering. In some ways I have shared it. The army backs the landlords. That is the truth. Cory is insincere."

Despite the tough words of Zumel and Justiniani, the Philippine Communist movement faces a number of nagging political problems that have grown from a series of recent tactical errors. The party boycotted last year's snap election that led to the downfall of Marcos. Last month party bosses made another strategic mistake when they urged voters to sit out the plebiscite on the new constitution. The overwhelming vote in favor of the charter indicated the gulf that still separates the party from the great majority of Filipinos. Despite the N.D.F.'s rejection of Aquino's amnesty offer, the Communists are clearly undecided about further talks with the government. During the funeral of Jose Diokno, a senior government negotiator in the cease-fire talks who recently died of natural causes, the N.D.F. issued a statement declaring its "willingness to negotiate on ((Diokno's)) terms. He sought a principled compromise, not a surrender."

There is little doubt that Filipinos cry out for social justice in a country where in some provinces more than 70% of the population lives in poverty. The Communists claim to have both the ideals and the answers, but Aquino has tried to undermine that appeal with her own program. Recently she announced that many bankrupt firms once controlled by Marcos or his cronies would be sold to pay for a land-reform program.

Observers in Manila say the Communists cannot defeat the armed forces of the Philippines in the near future. The N.P.A. admits that only 10,000 to 12,000 of its guerrillas are combat ready. In addition, the rebels have no proven outside sources of supply. By contrast, the Philippine army consists of some 60,000 soldiers, of whom about 50,000 could be considered effective ground troops. Still, the ratio of government troops to guerrillas is only about 5 to 1, half the 10-to-1 ratio military experts consider necessary to defeat an insurgency.

% The government's campaign has not been helped by Aquino's rocky relationship with her generals and her wavering on strategy. Last week, for example, she urged that paramilitary groups, including the 70,000-strong Civilian Home Defense Force, be immediately disbanded, then changed her mind the next day when the army complained. As in most guerrilla wars, the N.P.A. can choose the time and place of its attacks with virtual impunity. And unlike the smaller rebel forces, government units cannot live off the countryside, building effective social, political and economic relationships at the village level. Thus the longterm danger of the insurgency is more political than military. Army leaders believe the Communists have established a presence in nearly 20% of the country's 41,600 villages. Sooner or later a bloody showdown seems inevitable. Says Justiniani: "We had no expectations from Marcos, but we expected a lot from Cory. Our disappointment is a lot greater. Peace for the landlords is not our peace."