The "Turn-To" Scenarios

By Laurence I. Barrett/Washington

Mario Cuomo vs. Howard Baker in the presidential finals? When one of Cuomo's advisers, after watching an impressive Baker performance on a talk show, mused about what might be called the "turn-to" factor, the Governor laughed it off. Conventional wisdom, well versed in the lessons of past wars, says that fantasies about brokered conventions or late-starting saviors are merely that, fantasies. Yet a few contrarians, surveying the fractured and vulnerable fields shaping up in both parties, believe a 1988 nomination may yet go to a heavyweight unsullied by the early combat. Says Eddie Mahe, a Republican consultant: "The rules and dynamics we think we understand from the last few elections don't necessarily apply to 1988."

Turn-to scenarios posit that either party could turn to a fresh alternative, in the midst of a messy primary season or as the result of a deadlock leading into the conventions. Both front runners are vulnerable: George Bush still exudes weakness even as his boss recovers from Iranscam. Gary Hart's nominal supporters, according to last week's New York Times/CBS poll, are not committed to him yet, and old questions about his character are likely to resurface, at least temporarily, when the campaign heats up. Both parties have growing lists of challengers who seem likely to command a share of delegates without breaking out to win a majority. Among the Republicans, for example, former Senator Paul Laxalt said last week that he is forming an exploratory committee and hopes to announce formally in September. "Most Reagan conservatives," he noted, "are still searching for a candidate."

So are many moderate Democrats who were disappointed when Georgia's Senator Sam Nunn declined to become an active contender. Bob Strauss, the former national chairman and a man well suited to wield the kingmaker's mace, thinks Nunn could pull off a variation of the turn-to scenarios. He could announce later this year that his tasks as Armed Services Committee chairman prevent relentless campaigning in Iowa and New Hampshire, but that he will launch a national candidacy in time for the Southern round of primaries on March 8. This could succeed, Strauss speculates, because the earliest contests might yield a "dog's dinner result" -- a lot of scraps and leftovers -- for the present pack. If so, a Nunn or a Cuomo could defy conventional wisdom by waiting until after that round to leap in.

Mahe says the contest in either party could be wide open even after March 8 -- the mega-Tuesday that has at least 16 primaries and caucuses -- if no one has captured 40% of the delegates chosen up to that point. "Everyone in the race will be out of money," Mahe predicts, "fatigued, with fatigued staffs, fatigued messages." So there could be an opening for a classy contender -- Howard Baker or (if Bush collapses) James Baker on the Republican side, Cuomo or someone like New Jersey's Senator Bill Bradley on the Democratic side -- to ride in from the sidelines on a fresh white horse. The most fanciful scenario of all has the Democrats packing for Atlanta or the Republicans for New Orleans lacking a contender who commands close to 50%. That could mean an open convention with unpredictable results.

All these schemes collide with huge obstacles. Elaine Kamarck, deputy manager of Bruce Babbitt's campaign, points out that "it is a great risk to skip Iowa and New Hampshire." Candidates who have attempted that strategy, like Henry Jackson in 1976, never really recover because the opening contests, and news coverage of them, define the rest of the race. In addition, a candidate needs to have recruited and filed delegate slates by mid-January to contest many of the March and April primaries. Missing the early action also means losing the opportunity to refine a campaign's message and hone an organization.

Because Jesse Jackson is likely to control a bloc of delegates, it is possible that no other Democrat will command even 40% when the primaries end. But instead of a wild scramble, the probable result will be tame bargaining between the front runner and the losers, which is how Jimmy Carter won the 1976 nomination. Despite these realities, dreamy speculation is likely to continue as long as none of the present contenders show compelling strength.