Britain Aiming for Three Straight

By Christopher Ogden/London

Raucous shouting rocked Parliament in spirited exchanges over good economic news and the likelihood of an impending general election. Party leaders and Cabinet ministers turned their thoughts to clearing their appointment calendars and hiring campaign planes, buses and walkie-talkies, while workers distributed campaign posters and thousands of beribboned lapel rosettes in Tory blue, Labor red and Alliance gold. Buckingham Palace was alerted that Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher might suddenly seek an audience with Queen Elizabeth II.

As the results of local elections poured in, election fever gripped Britons. Although the 61-year-old Prime Minister is not required to call a general election until her five-year term ends in June 1988, virtually everyone expected Thatcher to announce a bid this week to become the first British Prime Minister in this century to win three consecutive terms. Her governing Tories hurdled the final obstacle to an early poll last week with an unexpectedly strong showing in elections for local councils. Some 27% of Britain's registered voters, or about 12 million people, cast ballots to fill 12,280 seats throughout Britain -- except in London, Scotland and Northern Ireland. Political pros called the bellwether vote the "world's biggest public opinion poll." The returns seemed to remove any doubt that Thatcher was poised to hit the hustings.

By week's end the Conservatives, who had worried about voter complacency and expected to lose hundreds of seats had actually gained 75. The Labor Party was the big loser, dropping 227 seats. The Alliance, the moderate coalition of David Steel's Liberals and David Owen's Social Democrats, gained a hefty 453 seats. The bottom line, according to British Broadcasting Corporation projections: in a general election the Tories would win 340 seats in the House of Commons, Labor 259 and the Alliance 31, with 21 scattered among other parties. "It was a good evening for the Tories," acknowledged Owen.

Conservative strategists spent the weekend analyzing thick printouts detailing the results from the 369 councils. Thatcher retired to Chequers, her official country residence, where she planned to meet with top political counselors, including Conservative Party Chairman Norman Tebbit, Deputy Prime Minister Viscount Whitelaw and Chief Whip John Wakeham. She reportedly intended to make a final decision early this week. If Thatcher's choice is for a snap election, she will inform her Cabinet, then ask Queen Elizabeth to dissolve Parliament. The favored election date is June 11.

British politicians have been gearing up for the campaign for weeks. Conservatives and Alliance leaders have put final touches on their national platforms. In the House of Commons, Speaker Bernard Weatherill wryly appealed for "less euphoria." Eager Labor officials, out of office for eight years, announced a new campaign slogan: "The country's crying out for change." Unfortunately for both Labor and the Alliance, opinion polls do not substantiate the sentiment.

After trailing Labor in popularity for most of 1986, the Tories have roared back. Thatcher's triumphant Moscow trip, contrasted with Labor Leader Neil Kinnock's failed venture to Washington, gave the government a sharp boost in April. Labor's demand that Britain scrap its nuclear arsenal and ban American nuclear weapons and bases, a stance the U.S. claims would destroy NATO, continues to cut deeply into the party's support. So have fierce intraparty ideological rivalries between moderates and the militant left. The quarreling allowed the Conservatives to jump into a lead of between 10 and 15 points. A midweek poll gave the Tories 44% support, the Labor Party 30% and the Alliance 25%.

Good economic news also boosted Thatcher's fortunes. The unemployment rate, now 11.4%, dropped in April for the eighth straight month. The government expects the May jobless total to fall below 3 million for the first time in four years. British banks dropped interest rates from 9 1/2% to 9%, the lowest in two years. The pound sterling, currently valued at $1.68, is at its strongest since October 1982. And the Confederation of British Industry found business leaders in the "most optimistic mood in years."

Still, Labor and the Alliance are giving away nothing. Labor intends to . attack the government's record on unemployment -- which has doubled since Thatcher took office in 1979 -- and propose increased public spending. It also plans to portray the Tories as insensitive and uncaring in health, education and housing policies. The Alliance strategy is to present the centrist alternative: more liberal than the Tories on social issues but more conservative than Labor on foreign and defense policy. Recent by-election victories have shown increasing receptivity to the Alliance as an alternative to the two main parties. For their part, the Conservatives will run on their record, promoting privatization, austere public spending and a strong nuclear policy. "The issues," says a Thatcher aide, "will be whether the country wants a prudent or imprudent economy, to attack inflation or let it rip, to defend or ignore defending our shores."

Bookies are already listing the Tories as 2-to-13 favorites, with Labor at 4 to 1 and the Alliance a 25-to-1 long shot. Still, few expect the kind of electoral landslide that gave the Conservatives 397 seats in the House of Commons four years ago. Most analysts predict that the Thatcherites will be lucky to emerge with half the 144-seat majority they won then. Even so, Tebbit, the feisty party chairman, predicts the election will be a "walk" for the Tories. That may be overly optimistic, but try telling Thatcher. "I am still bursting with energy," says the Iron Lady, who is already talking about a fourth term.