China The Old Man and the Mountains

By Howard G. Chua-Eoan

Mao Tse-tung once compared himself to a legendary "foolish old man" who picked away at mountains that obstructed the view from his house. Because his diligence found favor in heaven's eyes, the "foolish" man finally moved the mountains. Faced with a conservative backlash that has blocked his political and economic reforms since January, Deng Xiaoping, the current master of China, appears to be writing his own version of Mao's parable. Deng has resolutely continued to chip at the mountainous obstacles to his reform program. As a result, reformers seem to have regained the upper hand and positioned themselves for further advances at a crucial Communist Party meeting scheduled for October.

Through the winter and spring, the reformers had been balked by the doctrinaire Marxists, who were making a comeback after seven years of retreat in the face of Deng's reforms. The doctrinaire faction -- also known as conservatives and, even more confusingly, leftists -- blamed the reformers for last December's huge pro-democracy student demonstrations and launched a major campaign against "bourgeois liberalization." They vigorously attacked many of Deng's post-Mao changes, including greater artistic and press freedom and most moves toward capitalist-style economic reforms.

Late last year, when Deng himself moved toward acknowledging the criticism, the reform campaign began to run out of steam. He accepted the ouster of his protege, Hu Yaobang, from the important post of party General Secretary and slowed down measures to expand China's fledgling market economy. Debate on political reform, especially sensitive after the demonstrations, was shelved. With Deng apparently on their side, the conservatives pressed ahead with their campaign against capitalist thinking and Western influence.

Since then, however, the conservatives have been unable to devise economic proposals to replace Deng's reforms while still retaining China's newfound prosperity in the countryside and some urban centers. In April, Deng suddenly unbalanced his opponents when he told visiting dignitaries that the greatest danger to China came not only from complete Westernization but also from "leftist inertia."

Meanwhile, Deng shrewdly continued to groom his other protege, Premier Zhao Ziyang, who last January took on the discredited Hu's responsibilities as party General Secretary. At first, Zhao's official speeches outlined a delicate balance of power, with the conservatives dominating the political sphere and the reformists managing to keep control of the economy. With tacit encouragement from Deng, however, Zhao soon grew bolder. In April he faced down a conservative decision to bar a Chinese movie from overseas distribution. In late May the Premier denounced the conservatives' "ossified thinking," which he said endangered the livelihood of the people. Since then Zhao has not faced visible interference from the conservatives. When he went on a visit to Eastern Europe last month, he designated two reformists to run the government in his absence. Party insiders are talking about a coming "age of Zhao Ziyang."

The Chinese press has begun to reflect the resurgence of the reformers. One newspaper last week ran an interview with Fang Lizhi, a professor who had not been quoted publicly since his removal on charges that he instigated the December demonstrations. In recent weeks Deng himself has been widely quoted on the subject of reform. In mid-June he said, "The reform is total, including the economic and political fields and also others. The problem at present is to accelerate the reform." Last week the People's Daily and other newspapers republished Deng's seminal 1980 speech on political change, "On the Reform of the Party and Government Leadership Structure." The speech's reappearance was seen by Western analysts as part of an effort to put reform at the top of the agenda for October's 13th Congress of the Chinese Communist Party.

At that meeting, Deng may make a daring attempt to rid himself of his major rivals by giving up all but one of his formal titles. The move is unlikely to diminish his influence but almost certain to put pressure on other elderly leaders, particularly Party Theoretician Chen Yun and Deng's rival Peng Zhen, to retire from the Politburo. If the two do not retire, they will be seen as power grabbers. If they do step down, they will most probably be replaced by less doctrinaire leftists who lack their clout. Already many younger conservatives are publicly agreeing that political reforms must take place.

Deng may yet be tripped up at the October congress. If, as expected, Zhao gives up his post as Premier to take up the party chairmanship full time, he may be isolated from his power base in the bureaucracy. Deng's fortunes may also suffer if, as a concession to the conservatives, one of their number is appointed Premier. The conservatives are expected to call for collective leadership, and Peng may continue to block reforms from the National People's Congress, of which he is Chairman. Still the momentum seems to be on the side of reform. "The reformists now seem able to come out boldly in attacking the conservative ideas," says a Western diplomat in Peking. "There's a return to Deng's pragmatic line. They've turned some kind of corner."

With reporting by Jaime A. FlorCruz and William Stewart/Peking