Central America Cursed

By Michael S. Serrill

The communique from Havana last week sounded downright chummy. "Fidel expressed to Daniel the readiness of Cuba to cooperate with Nicaragua as far as possible to make the policy a success," read the statement. Fidel, of course, was the bearded one. And Daniel was Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega Saavedra. The topic of conversation: a peace plan for Central America that Ortega had signed in Guatemala City the previous week.

The get-together with Castro may have revived doubts about Ortega's status as an independent decision maker, but it was far friendlier than a session in Washington on the same subject. When Ronald Reagan met with more than a dozen conservative supporters to discuss his tentative support of the Guatemala plan, as well as his sponsorship of a rival accord hammered out with Democratic House Speaker Jim Wright, his guests angrily denounced both pacts. They argued that either one of them would destroy the U.S.-backed contras who are fighting to overthrow Ortega's Sandinista government. Said Howard Phillips, chairman of the Conservative Caucus, a 700,000-member lobbying group: "I think it's the biggest mistake that Reagan has made during his presidency."

The heated reaction from Reagan's longtime supporters sowed further discord within an Administration that had not made up its mind about the wisdom of either agreement. As Reagan waffled last week, first embracing the Guatemala plan, then amending his own accord, the White House found itself attacked on all sides. On Friday, Central American Special Envoy Philip Habib resigned, reportedly because he was not consulted on the Reagan-Wright accord and was doubtful that the Guatemala plan would work.

At the heart of the debate are the timetables for bringing about peace. The Guatemala plan, signed by the Presidents of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, calls for cease-fires in the region's civil wars, an end to outside aid for local insurgents, democratic reforms and free elections. The agreement gives the Central American governments 90 days from the date of its signing -- until Nov. 7 -- to work out the details. That is five weeks after the U.S.'s current $100 million aid package for the contras expires on Sept. 30. The Reagan-Wright proposal, on the other hand, calls for an immediate cease-fire in the contra war, followed by talks leading to new elections in Nicaragua. Under this scenario, if the Sandinistas did not institute democratic reforms by Sept. 30, the Administration would seek new funds for the Nicaraguan rebels.

The White House accord, hastily put together in 15 days, was announced with great fanfare two weeks ago. Three days later the Central American leaders signed their deal, first presented by Costa Rican President Oscar Arias Sanchez in February. Speaker Wright abruptly shifted ground, saying the homegrown Central American accord must prevail and that the White House proposal would be "merely supportive." Though Reagan initially gave his blessing to the Guatemala plan as well, he did not anticipate the fire storm of reaction from his conservative supporters, who were already appalled that the President had countenanced discussions with the Sandinistas in his original scheme. Even Vice President George Bush, eager to boost his conservative credentials in the race for the Republican presidential nomination, retreated. Said Bush: "We are not going to leave the contras twisting in the wind, wondering whether they are going to be done in by a peace plan."

If the U.S. votes new aid to the contras, Nicaraguan Vice President Sergio Ramirez Mercado said, then Managua will not institute reforms and the Guatemala plan will collapse. Nonetheless, there is genuine hope among the Central American leaders that their accord will succeed. Under the plan, Nicaragua's contras and leftist rebel groups in El Salvador and Guatemala would be deprived of new arms, and the contras would be ejected from their bases in Honduras. Not surprisingly, the contras remain deeply suspicious. "There's just no way we're going to put down our arms and surrender," says Contra Leader Pedro Joaquin Chamorro Jr. "We will not disarm until the Sandinistas are on an irreversible path to democratization."

Arias is already pushing Ortega in that direction. He publicly called on the Nicaraguan leader to lift the five-year-old state of emergency and restore civil liberties by the Nov. 7 deadline. But Ortega made no promises, saying the reopening of the opposition newspaper La Prensa, which was closed by the government more than a year ago, and the Roman Catholic radio station Radio Catolico, is "an option of ours."

Ortega seems eager, however, to give at least the appearance of cooperation. He quickly formed the Nicaraguan version of the "national reconciliation commission" that each country must set up to monitor compliance with the pact. He invited opposition political groups and Miguel Cardinal Obando y Bravo, the archbishop of Managua, to nominate candidates for the four-person panel. As a friendly gesture to Arias, Nicaragua dropped its lawsuit in the World Court charging Costa Rica with violating international law by harboring contras.

Ortega's apparent willingness to put the peace process into motion stems in part from his country's deepening economic problems. "The Nicaraguan economy $ is a mess, and they realize it," said Arias. Managua may also have been influenced by the reported reluctance of the Soviet Union to continue subsidizing the country. Castro readily agreed to pull his 2,500 military advisers out of Nicaragua, but his price was high: the withdrawal of all U.S. troops from Honduras. The next sign of how far Ortega is willing to go will be at a meeting of the five countries' foreign ministers, set for this week. But the most important date on Ronald Reagan's calendar appears to be Sept. 30. If the President is not satisfied by then that the Sandinistas are taking steps toward democracy, the battle over contra aid will be joined in Congress once again.

With reporting by David Aikman/Washington and Laura Lopez/Mexico