Unhappy Democrats, a Loyal G.O.P.

By Laurence I. Barrett

Although Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have eight active presidential contenders to choose from, 49% of them are only somewhat satisfied or not satisfied at all with their options, and 34% would like to see other candidates running. In a poll for TIME last week by Yankelovich Clancy Shulman, when Democrats and leaners were asked specifically whether they want Gary Hart to re-enter the race, 41% said yes. The survey also shows that Jesse Jackson, by far the best known in the present Democratic field, has gained support.

Republican and Republican-leaning respondents, by contrast, are relatively content with their roster of six choices; only 12% say they would like to see someone else in the presidential race. Vice President George Bush is regaining much of the ground he lost early this year to his main challenger, Senate Minority Leader Robert Dole. Bush was named as the first choice for President by 45% of the Republicans and leaners.

Among the Democrats, Jackson towers over his competitors in name recognition: 88% of those surveyed are familiar with him, while his rivals are unfamiliar to two-thirds or more of those interviewed last week. That contrast translates into increased appeal. Just after Hart dropped out of the presidential race in May, a TIME poll found that Jackson was the first choice of 15% of the Democrats. Running against the present field, Jackson is now the first choice of 26% of Democrats and leaners, though 28% still have no preference. Massachusetts Governor Michael Dukakis is a distant second with 11%. Colorado Congresswoman Pat Schroeder, who did not begin campaigning until June, is third with 9%.

Jackson, who has been laboring to broaden his appeal beyond the black community, has made some progress among whites: 17% of white Democrats and leaners named him as their first choice, compared with 13% for Dukakis. He remains the overwhelming favorite of black Democrats and leaners (59% picked him as their candidate). Similarly, Schroeder gets twice as much support among women as she does among men.

The low visibility of the other Democratic candidates will change as the caucuses and primaries get closer, and voters' preferences are likely to change as well. In Iowa, where most of the Democrats have been campaigning intensely, surveys by the Des Moines Register indicate Jackson has been losing ground. Jackson's unfavorable rating among respondents who are familiar with him remains relatively high, although it is dropping. When respondents were asked if they have a "generally favorable or unfavorable impression" of each candidate, Jackson draws a 60% favorable response to 26% unfavorable. That is a significant improvement since January, when his ratio was 45% to 37%, and moves him closer to some other candidates: for former Governor Bruce Babbitt, the figures are 44% to 25%; for Senator Joseph Biden, 55% to 23%. But Dukakis attracts favorable to unfavorable ratings of 71% to 11%.

Respondents familiar with each candidate were also asked if they agreed with nine descriptions of that contender, such as "has the experience to be President" and "someone you can trust." Like the other Democrats, Jackson comes up with relatively low marks in categories such as "experience," does well in others ("a strong and decisive leader"), and ends up as a mediocre part of the pack under several headings. These symptoms of ambivalence explain why one-third of possible Democratic voters say they would like to see another candidate in the race. When this group is asked who that candidate should be, 25% say Senator Edward Kennedy, another 25% say Hart and 19% mention New York Governor Mario Cuomo.

On the Republican side, the competition still centers on Bush and Dole, with the others trailing badly. But Bush's lead was dissolving during the first half of 1987. TIME's May survey of Republicans showed the Vice President ahead by only ten points, 34% to 24%, as the first choice for the nomination. In the latest survey, Bush's lead among Republicans and Republican leaners has increased to 24 points.

Bush has also made progress in the voters' perception of candidates. Last January 81% of Republicans familiar with the candidates agreed that Dole was "someone you can trust," while Bush's rating on that count was 75%. Now those percentages are reversed: 80% of Republicans and leaners call Bush trustworthy, vs. 73% for Dole. In January only half the Republicans would call Bush a "strong and decisive leader," while 81% said that critical description applied to Dole. The Vice President is still not viewed as the most decisive leader the G.O.P. could nominate, but his mark has improved to 61%, vs. 66% for Dole. Nonetheless, Dole's 71% favorability rating nearly equals Bush's 74%.

One important reason for Bush's recovery is that questions raised about his credibility in the early stages of the Iranscam investigation have now evaporated. Dole at first capitalized on Iranscam by deftly showing just the amount of independence from the White House that party loyalty would allow. But he was unable to generate continuing momentum when Bush was most vulnerable. While Dole divided his time between the Senate and the hustings, his campaign team was struggling to organize itself and raise money. Up to this point, the TIME poll indicates, Dole has been unable to establish a presidential profile strong enough to overcome Bush's advantage as the dutiful lieutenant to a President still adored in the party.

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CREDIT: TIME Chart by Joe Lertola

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DESCRIPTION: A poll showing leading Democratic and Republican candidates for President and their ratings on various qualities.