The Presidency

By Hugh Sidey

Time for a hunch. Barring man-made calamities, natural disasters or World War III, George Bush is apt to become the next President of the U.S.

We have reached that point in the presidential cycle when old political war- horses come in from the summer's foraging among the grass roots and bet their pocket change on a candidate. A year ahead is a little crazy, sure -- but take heed. Back in 1959 a tousle-haired young reporter for the Boston Globe came home after some lonely wanderings with a young Senator and mused on paper that the Kennedys were coming. Bob Healy's evidence was mostly in his gut -- but so right. The New York Times's Johnny Apple roamed the prairie hustings with Jimmy (who?) Carter in 1975 and startled the world with a story in October that the Georgian might go to the top.

So, after weeks of dusty browsing around this great country, I stopped for coffee at Toad's Place, out in western Iowa, and bet my old gang a nickel on Bush. It may be catching. The Washington Post's David Broder last week inhaled the fall vapors and wrote, "The recognition is growing in the political community that odds favor the Republicans' nominating the next President."

Bush has regained a comfortable lead in the polls. He has survived the indignities of being Vice President, a man subject to harsh indictment from right and left without the freedom to respond. And suddenly Bush is no longer alone on the battlefield. Other mortals have become targets. Bush can sound silly -- using phrases like "deep doo-doo" and telling reporters last week after visiting Poland that Soviet tanks rarely break down and the workers who make them should be sent to Detroit "because we could use that kind of ability." But that pales beside the glandular and verbal flare-ups among the Democrats. Bush's 21 years of solid public service in six big jobs stand like granite, sober but more enduring than a weekend on the Monkey Business or a speech imported from British Pol Neil Kinnock. We always choose a President by comparing him with somebody else.

Which suggests that the most political fun this season may be found among the Republicans seeking the nomination, if that is not an oxymoron. There is a new phenomenon abroad in the land, and it has just begun to pique the curiosity of the pollsters and the handlers. Call it Dole 2.

Senator Bob Dole has been nipping at Bush's heels for a long time. Now he has been cloned. Liddy Dole is not only his wife; she is also a national political figure with presidential potential of her own. She left her Cabinet job as Transportation Secretary last Wednesday to join her husband's crusade. There has never been a combination like this in American history.

Liddy Dole is neither mother nor housekeeper. She is a power broker who happens to have a North Carolina accent, which undoubtedly will deepen as the campaign wears on and she fields policy questions about nuclear arms, budgets, trade balances, airline safety. Strategic issues will not be escaped as they were by Nancy Reagan, who once joked that she had planned to discuss nuclear disarmament with her husband but decided instead to clean out his sock drawer. Liddy Dole will be expected to know -- and she will.

One of the oldest truths in politics is that one figure rarely can transfer support to another. Harry Truman could not do it for Adlai Stevenson; Dwight Eisenhower could not help Richard Nixon; and it remains to be seen whether Ronald Reagan's popularity can rub off on Bush. Nor is there any evidence that a candidate's wife ever captured votes for her husband.

But Dole 2 is different. "It's new," acknowledged White House Pollster Richard Wirthlin the other day. Could voters be persuaded to vote for a couple? Might women, perhaps, be enticed into voting for Bob Dole in the realization that Liddy would play a unique political role? "Could be," answered Wirthlin.

The task before the Doles now is to shape this new thing in politics. It won't be easy, but it certainly will be fascinating. And if it works, the next time a reporter sits down to play with the presidential equation, he may decide that the answer is Dole to the second power.