Japan Tee Time for the Threesome

By Barry Hillenbrand/Tokyo

Kintaro-ame, a traditional Japanese candy cane, is a frequently used metaphor for explaining the policy views of leaders of Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party. Snap a stick of Kintaro-ame in several places and the identical face of Kintaro, a folk hero, can be seen inside. Snap open the position papers of various L.D.P. officials, and they all look the same.

Thus when three L.D.P. leaders officially declared last week that they were candidates for the presidency of their party, little attention was paid to their policy papers. Never mind that one of the three candidates will become Prime Minister, succeeding Yasuhiro Nakasone, 70, when he steps down later this month after five years in office. No, the speculation immediately centered on which of the three -- Party Secretary General Noboru Takeshita, former Foreign Minister Shintaro Abe or Finance Minister Kiichi Miyazawa -- will be the best power broker, dispensing promises among the various factions that make up the L.D.P. The winner needs a majority of the 445 L.D.P. members in the Diet. "I do not think there are any contentious issues dividing us," said Takeshita. "It will boil down to differences in style."

Differences there are. The front runner is Takeshita, 63, a cautious political pro who proudly admits building his career on "patience and $ silence." Diligently executing other men's policies rather than pushing his own ideas, he is viewed by critics as an unoriginal thinker. Takeshita controls the largest faction in the Diet, with 114 votes, but it is well below the 223 required for victory.

Miyazawa, 68, is as urbane and witty as Takeshita is provincial and dry. A rabbit at negotiating Japan's bureaucratic warrens, Miyazawa served for ten years in the Ministry of Finance before his 1953 election to the Diet, where his faction now numbers 89. The favorite among businessmen and government officials, Miyazawa is fluent in English. All his brilliance, ironically, may be a political liability in a country where too much flair and genius, openly displayed, is suspect.

The genial Abe, 63, worked as Nakasone's highly visible Foreign Minister from 1982 to 1986, logging 39 official trips abroad. Open and easy in manner, he is the closest in style to Nakasone, a man who reshaped Japanese politics by being dynamic and forceful.

After filing their petitions to run, the three candidates announced that they would meet privately in an attempt to negotiate the choice of Nakasone's successor among themselves. If that effort fails, L.D.P. members will hold a vote next week.

Takeshita and Abe have already cobbled together a fragile union with another faction leader, Toshio Komoto. The trio controls 231 votes, but who the candidate will be, Takeshita or Abe, remains a question. To the delight of Miyazawa, who is fishing for allies, the Abe-Takeshita alliance is rickety. As Abe puts it, "There is only one chair for us to sit in. We can't solve the problem with a round of golf, which I would surely win."

The man most eager to break that threesome is Nakasone, who covets the role of kingmaker in order to maintain clout once he leaves office. Ever the shrewd politician, he has not publicly declared his choice. Though only a so-so golfer, Nakasone has proved himself a pro at playing the intricate game of politics.